Bitcoin (BTC) lost traction again on Sunday at $20,000 and dipped all the way to $18,500 yesterday morning. Bitcoin finally held up here and then made a small rebound. Bitcoin briefly touched $19,600 last night, but the price dropped to $19,400 on Binance and $19,335 on Bitvavo by this morning.
This means that the BTC price is up 4.8% today. Trading volume increased by 1% in the past 24 hours. The total market capitalization is $372 billion and the dominance at 39.6%. The Fear & Greed Index comes in at 23 (Extreme Fear). Talk about it in our Discord surroundings!
Bitcoin fake out or new lows?
That means bitcoin has returned to the recent range where the price has seen a so-called descending triangle, or descending triangle, forms.
bulls defended #Bitcoin today
This area has now been tested 5 times: pic.twitter.com/10HnsjIIKI
— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) September 20, 2022
Opinions among analysts are starting to diverge again. Some analysts are starting yesterday’s dip a fake out to name. They expect the price to recover to $20,000 and then even $22,000. Conversely, other analysts fear that the current recovery will be short-lived. They are still expecting new lows if the $18,500 and $17,600 don’t hold.
Meanwhile, Caleb Franzen reports that bitcoin’s 1-year exponential moving average (EMA) is dropping below the 2-year EMA for the first time since 2015. According to the analyst, it shows how heavy the current bear market is.
#Bitcoin analysis using annual EMAs & weekly candles:
52-week EMA = 1yr
104 week EMA = 2yrs
156-week EMA = 3yrsFor the first time since 2015, $BTC‘s 1-yr EMA is trading below the 2-yr EMA.
Further confirmation of the severity of this bear market. pic.twitter.com/0VK63sQ8gT
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) September 19, 2022
Tomorrow FOMC
The price decline at the beginning of this week was accompanied by a rising US dollar index (DXY). DXY has slowed down a bit over the past few hours and is correcting slightly. That may give some leeway to the financial markets. The S&P 500 also rose slightly yesterday. Bitcoin has a very high positive correlation with risk stocks like the S&P 500 this year and an even higher negative correlation with DXY.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Tomorrow we will find out what percentage the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by. So it can still be quite volatile.
Tis but a scratch. pic.twitter.com/sZfDe5Vanv
— ecoinometrics (@ecoinometrics) September 19, 2022
Bitcoin HODLers have faith
Yet there are still bullish signals for the long term. Analyst Will Clemente reports that a whopping 65% of BTC supply has not moved for at least a year, despite the price dropping 60%. It shows a strong confidence among the ‘HODL’ers.
Despite a 60% decline in price over the same time period, 65% of Bitcoin’s supply has not moved in at least a year pic.twitter.com/DcCFXHTvvw
— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) September 20, 2022
Analyst On-Chain College adds that even nearly 25% of the BTC supply has not moved for almost 5 years. That is a confirmation of the strong long-term confidence in bitcoin.
24.8% of the #Bitcoin supply has not moved in at least 5 years.
That’s 4.75 million coins. pic.twitter.com/2KXyctcny8
— OnChain College (@OnChainCollege) September 19, 2022
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