The world seems to be installed in a gerontocracy. A decade ago, only one of the world’s 10 most populous countries had a leader over 70. That was the case in India Manmohan Singhwho would ultimately pass the baton to the current Prime Minister, the Hindu nationalist Narendra Modiwho is on his way to his third term at the head of the country.
But the course has changed in the last decade. Today, eight of these ten countries already have a leader in his seventies or eighties. Veterans who rule over half of the world’s population. India, for example, has been added to the list again. Modi, who came to power at the age of 63, turned 73 last September.
The only exceptions so far have been Indonesia and Pakistan, but the two overpopulated Asian countries that held elections in early 2024 are on the verge of losing that status. The controversial former general Prabowo Subianto, winner of Indonesia’s elections, is 72 years old. The same ones Shehbaz Sharifthe next Prime Minister of Pakistan.
There is no doubt: the world’s leaders are getting older. But what happened to keep this trend going? According to experts, the causes are diverse and depend, among other things, on the political system and the region. The main reason is the consolidation of autocratic regimes or the authoritarian tendency of democracies.
The main examples are China Xi Jinpingthe Russia of Wladimir Putin and Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina. In 2022, Xi began his third term as head of the Chinese Communist Party. He was 69 years old. Putin, who came to power in 1999 at the age of 47, has been in the Kremlin for a quarter of a century. While Sheikh Hasina, who has been in office for 16 years, secured a fifth term in office in last January’s elections, she was plagued by irregularities. The father’s daughter is 76 years old.
Other causes, already in the most stable democracies, point to increasingly demanding barriers to entry. In the United States, for example, winning elections increasingly requires more resources, a factor that gives an advantage to established politicians with well-oiled donor networks.
However, this framework contradicts the preferences of the majority of voters. American voters prefer a president under the age of 70, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll. Many fear that poor health could be a problem Joe Biden and also its main alternative, Donald Trump.
The current occupant of the White House is the oldest president in the history of the United States. He took office at the age of 78 and, if re-elected, would finish his second term at no less than 86 years old. Biden is the ninth oldest leader in the world, a list that also includes the Brazilian Lula da Silva, 78 years old. At 77, Trump is younger than Biden, but he would be among the 25 oldest heads of state and government in the world.
The trend is not just limited to the White House, but also extends to the Senate and House of Representatives. There are several examples from former Democratic speakers there Nancy Pelosi even the leader of the Republican minority in the Senate, Mitch McConnellwho announced this Wednesday that he was leaving office at the age of 82.
In America’s ironclad two-party system, young profiles often have to start at the bottom of one of the two major political families. This ecosystem makes it difficult for similar leaders to emerge Emmanuel Macronthe youngest president of the French Fifth Republic, arriving at the Elysée Palace at the age of 39.
Europe has generally avoided the trend of electing more senior leaders. On the cases of the former Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marinwho ruled for 47 years, joins those of the Danes Mette Frederiksenthe Estonian Kaja Kallas or the Italian Giorgia Meloni. Cases of precocity are becoming increasingly difficult to find in other parts of the world.
