Currently, it is more and more common to observe that hurricanes intensify rapidly and the probability that when one of these phenomena forms will reach greater magnitudes, seems to be increasing, warned a researcher in a remote conference broadcast at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM).
In a statement issued this Saturday, the institution said that Purdue University researcher Dan Chavas spoke before academics and students of the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Change (ICAyCC) of the UNAM, within the cycle of conferences "Current landscape of atmospheric sciences and climate change".
The specialist in applied mathematics and atmospheric and oceanic sciences from the University of Wisconsin-Madison recalled that Hurricane Patricia, which made landfall in Mexico in 2015 with winds of 345 km/h, is an example of one that intensified rapidly.
"And we saw behaviors like this more and more frequently, maybe there is more consensus and I think peak intensity is more difficult"he pointed.
Also, he said it’s "complex to say if the storms get stronger"but they also saw that "more hurricanes reach higher levels" and that’s one "sign"he pointed.
Chavas, PhD in Atmospheric Sciences from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) gave a talk on the use of experimental laboratory models to understand tropical cyclones on Earth, in which he explained that studies with computer models allow knowing and extensively study the behavior of phenomena and simulate their changes.
He recalled that the use of these systems shows their complexity, helps to carry out experiments to change things, as well as to offer climate forecasts, in addition, he said that they also allowed progressive monitoring of cyclones and hurricanes such as Katia, Irma and José in 2017, as well as Sandy (2012) that caused damages of 65,000 million dollars.
The researcher specified that a significant number of scientists in the world try to answer the doubts about "how the planet is warming and what to expect in terms of velocity and minimum pressure, so it is hoped that by using computational models we will better understand what is going on".
Chavas, a specialist in the study of tropical cyclones, severe weather, risk analysis and modeling, and their social impacts, added that in order to know what is happening, "one of the data that is expected to be known is the temperature of the sea, important information to identify the potential for maximum intensity".
He said that recent studies carried out by his team showed that the intensity of cyclones has been affected by climate change, but the Earth is probably at a point where rainfall increases and its intensity may be greater, as well as its frequency.
