Bitcoin price is rising, but the likelihood of a recession is also increasing

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) soared yesterday after positive news was released about the legal dispute between Grayscale and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over the spot bitcoin ETF. Now it will be interesting to see if that cops continue to push the bitcoin price higher as the environment for bitcoin remains difficult due to the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes.

In today’s macro update, we take a closer look at some key US economic data points.

Recession in America or not?

The big question is still whether we will see a recession due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate campaign to bring inflation back to the 2.0 percent target. A key factor in this question is the US labor market, which has held up surprisingly well despite the rate hikes.

However, some weaker data came this week from the US jobs market in the form of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which revised down the month of July to 8.827 million unfilled jobs in America from 9.165 million.

JOLTS. Source: Forex Factory

In addition, consumer confidence in the United States also fell sharply to 106.1 from an expected 116. Both the current financial situation of the American consumer and expectations for the next six months have fallen sharply.

Would the American consumer’s piggy bank really run out? It’s starting to look like this.

What does this mean for the Bitcoin price?

The likelihood of a recession in the United States is increasing with this new data and that will likely put additional downward pressure on Bitcoin price. Of course, we saw a nice surge yesterday due to Grayscale’s victory in the ETF lawsuit against the SEC.

The question now is whether this positive momentum can continue or whether macroeconomic conditions will regain the upper hand. The latter seems the most likely scenario, as winning the legal battle does not mean that a spot Bitcoin ETF will hit the US market immediately.

In this respect, the continuation of 2023 is quite possible bearish Become Bitcoin with the only one placeholder the arrival of an ETF. So these are exciting times for Bitcoin and the crypto market.

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