The bitcoin (BTC) blockchain makes it possible to analyze the digital currency in detail. However, it is important to realize that the blockchain does not paint the whole picture. A lot of trade takes place outside the blockchain on the exchange platforms.
15 million bitcoin
What the blockchain data now shows is that more and more people are going into HODL mode. More than 15 million bitcoin have been at the same address on the blockchain for more than 6 months, according to data from Glassnode. That concerns about 78 percent of all bitcoin currently in circulation.
What you often see is that this percentage drops during the peaks of a bull market. Those are the times when many hodlers decide to sell part of their bitcoin and grab some profit.
It is also striking that the number of bitcoins that have been at the same address for more than 6 months continues to rise. The army of hodlers still seems to be growing in that regard. More and more people see bitcoin as an attractive way to save, according to the numbers and data of the blockchain.
In the graph above we see the opposite picture. This is a representation of the “young supply,” i.e. bitcoin that has been active in the last six months. They always peak during the peaks of the bull market.
The next bitcoin halving
With the rise of bitcoin’s ‘old supply’, which have been at the same address for more than six months, the market seems to be preparing for the next halving. The halving is scheduled for March 2024 and means that the number of BTC that bitcoin miners receive per block will drop from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoin.
For the past 14 years, the bitcoin price has moved in the rhythm of the halvings. We often saw that the price rose somewhat in the run-up to the halving, only to start a new bull market in the year after the halving.
Of course that does not guarantee the future, but what you often see in the financial world is that the present rhymes with the past. In that sense, there is a chance that we will see a repeat of this cycle.