Khamenei’s Iranian regime made its best attempt against Israel last weekend, launching more than 100 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and more than 100 drones. In total more than 300 forms of air strikes from many different sides and vectors.
The question now is: What happens if Israel finally decides to fight back?What if Netanyahu took this opportunity to finally bomb Tehran’s famous nuclear weapons program? This scenario has been brewing for years, but here’s a version of what it could look like.
Multiple squadrons of F-35 fighter jets could fly separate routes to attack different locations in the Islamic Republic. around 2,000 kilometers from the Jewish state. Some of the fighters could fly along the Syrian-Turkish border (despite those countries’ opposition) and then through Iraq (which would also object).
Other bombers could fly through Saudi airspace (it is unclear whether this would be through agreement or silent resistance) and the Persian Gulf. The main goal would be to eliminate Iran’s air defenses.
They could arrive simultaneously or in waves, as Iran did on Saturday night First, we must eliminate the Ayatollahs’ air defense systems at dozens of nuclear sites, carefully selected by Mossad and IDF intelligence. Their mission would be to destroy Iran’s serious air defense shield, a system far more sophisticated than anything Lebanon, Syria or Hamas possess.
Regardless of whether the F-35s arrived together or in waves, there would almost certainly be a separate wave Israel’s F-15 Eagles, F-16 Fighting Falcons and F-35s heavily loaded with American GBU-72 bombs of 2.3 tons. Bombs weighing 900 kilos or less could also be used for a variety of targets.
It might even be so After that, more waves are created that help penetrate deep into the ground to destroy Iran’s most important nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz. The IDF could also deploy significant numbers of its own surface-to-surface ballistic missiles as well as attack and reconnaissance drones.
Fordo’s main chamber is buried about 80 meters underground, a depth suitable only for bombs 13 tons of “bunker busters” of the American arsenal could be destroyed immediately. But even under the Trump administration, the United States has always refused to provide Israel with such bunker busters.
However, it is not necessary to completely remove an installation to render it unusable. Repeated series of attacks could block Tehran’s access to electricity, bury its entrances and exits and isolate it from the world. Such an operation may not be free. Iran could manage to shoot down planes.
There is also the possibility that Some aircraft cannot make the return flight due to fuel problems, even if the plan included a complex mid-air refueling capability or a mid-course landing site.
On the positive side, despite the huge number of IDF airstrikes Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, which reportedly occasionally included F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, Israel lost only one F-16 in early 2018 and never an F-35. Special forces or Mossad agents in Iran assisting in close-in operations could be lost one way or another.
More opportunities to attack
On the other hand, There are additional facilities that Israel could attack, such as the heavy water reactor in Arak, the uranium conversion plant near Isfahan, the research reactors in Bonab, Ramsar and Tehran and other facilities where Iran has made progress in weapons matters, although these nuclear facilities may have a lower priority since they are earlier points in the nuclear weapons cycle.
In mid-2023, it was also revealed that IDF intelligence had formed a new unit made up of dozens of officers with one goal: Collect and evaluate information to develop a database of targets massively to attack Iran far beyond its nuclear program.
The goals were to include important energy sources for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to bring them to their knees in the same way that IDF intelligence had spent years collecting information on large numbers of Hamas and Hezbollah targets.
Israel must not launch a major attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This means the range of targets may not be much wider than that of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Maintaining support from the United States and its allies is also critical.
The main reason for not attacking Iran for years was the blowback that Jerusalem could receive from Hezbollah, Hamas and hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles. With most worst-case scenarios having already occurred, there appears to be far less reason to hold back today than at any time in recent decades.