Ukraine has accused Russia of launching Iranian attack drones from Belarus on Monday, in addition to missile strikes and aerial bombardments by Russian forces over much of Ukraine. “The enemy used Iranian drones of the Shahed-136 type from the territory of Belarus and temporarily occupied Crimea,” the Ukrainian army said on Facebook, assuring that nine of them had been destroyed.
But Moscow’s use of Iranian drones demonstrates two things: Tehran’s growing role in this activity and certain shortcomings in the Russian drone sector. Iran delivered hundreds of drones to Russia this summer, according to the White House, and they were notably used in the series of strikes launched by Russia on Monday, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
A “suicide” drone
Two models have been identified with different uses. “The Shahed 136 is a fairly large, low-cost construction suicide drone. It reaches its target by GPS coordinates, entered before takeoff. It then evolves in autonomy, flying quite low and reaching a target which is necessarily fixed at a few hundred kilometers,” explains Pierre Grasser, a French researcher associated with the Sirice center in Paris.
But also “the Mohajer-6, which has a function and a size similar to the Turkish Bayraktar TB-2”, explains Vikram Mittal, professor at the American military academy of Westpoint. The Mohajer-6 “are the Russian response to Ukraine’s TB-2”, the famous MALE (medium altitude, long endurance) armed drone supplied by Turkey and which also distinguished itself in the hands of Azerbaijan in its war against Armenia in 2020, recalls Jean-Christophe Noël, French researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).
An “economy for Russia”
“Like all armed drones or lurking ammunition, they are very effective when the adversary does not have the means to protect themselves or retaliate”, underlines Jean-Christophe Noël. “A lot of their initial success will come from the fact that it’s a new weapon in this theatre. The Ukrainians will capture them, dissect them and develop anti-drone systems. Before that, they will be effective,” believes Vikram Mittal. Until then, the Ukrainians can try to shoot them down with portable anti-aircraft systems during the day, or batteries equipped with radar at night. They can also try – but the maneuver is not easy – to jam the GPS signal to interfere with the Shahed 136s which are not equipped to continue towards their target in this situation.
Regarding these suicide drones, “their use is a measure of economy for Russia, because it spares precious cruise missiles, which cost 1.5 to 2 million” US dollars, recalls Pierre Grasser. Their “main flaw is that they can only hit fixed targets,” he points out. “It poses little threat to deployed troops. This arrival of drones should therefore not change the course of the battle”.
An “admission of industrial failure”
Why would Russia, one of the main arms producers in the world, buy from Iran? “The Ministry of Defense has developed appropriate tactical and technical requirements for drones. And most (Russian) manufacturers, unfortunately, are unable to comply with them,” Russian Colonel Igor Ichchuk said recently, quoted by the TASS agency. Pierre Grasser, for his part, evokes a weakness in the Russian industrial structure. “The STC, which manufactures Orlan (reconnaissance) drones, has announced that it will switch to 3-8 to operate 24 hours a day. They are unable to form the teams. As on the front line, Russia’s problem is human resources,” he explains.
Beyond this difficulty, Russia had not planned in its arsenal of long-range suicide drones like the Shahed 136, but had “models with reduced autonomy (40 km maximum)”, he adds. As for the MALE armed drones, “the fact of receiving Iranian Mohajer-6s is also an admission of industrial failure”, specifies the researcher. “They are supposed to have materials in this range (…). This means that (Russian industry) cannot keep up. “Western sanctions have caused problems, like the Covid, which has disrupted global supply chains,” said Vikram Mittal.
International sanctions circumvented by Russia
The Russians “no longer have access to Western technological components and their attempts to develop this type of device in series have been unsuccessful,” explains Jean-Christophe Noël. Even if they implement workarounds. For example, have a Russian diplomat buy navigation systems anywhere in the world in an aeromodelling store. “The parts will then be sent to Russia by diplomatic pouch,” explains Pierre Grasser.
“There is undoubtedly a form of race between Iran and Turkey on the segment of the cheap drones to extend their sphere of influence”, estimates Vikram Mittal. “The top of the market is occupied by the United States and Israel,” recalls Mariane Renaux, aeronautics and drones expert. “Turkish drones are below, but are more reliable than Iranian drones which seem to lack high accuracy,” she adds. “Iran already has customers for these drones in the Middle East” with its allies, from Yemen to Lebanon via Iraq, recalls Jean-Christophe Noël. “But the American sanctions against potential customers very strongly limit the number of candidates who would like to equip themselves with such equipment,” he adds.