Almost overnight, Japan has become an impressive and somewhat mysterious success story with the coronavirus.
Daily new COVID-19 cases have plummeted from a mid-August high of nearly 6,000 in Tokyo, and the number of cases in the densely populated capital now routinely falls below 100, an 11-month low.
The bars are packed, the trains are full of people and the atmosphere is festive, despite the general bewilderment over what, exactly, is behind the steep fall.
Japan, unlike elsewhere in Europe and Asia, has never had anything close to a lockdown, just a series of relatively toothless states of emergency.
Some possible factors in Japan’s success include a late but remarkably rapid vaccination campaign, the emptying of many nightlife areas as fears spread during the recent surge in cases, a widespread practice, long before the pandemic, wearing masks and bad weather in late August. that kept people at home.
But with the vaccine’s efficacy gradually declining and winter approaching, experts worry that without knowing exactly why cases have dropped so dramatically, Japan could face another wave like this summer, when hospitals were overflowing with cases. serious and fatalities skyrocketed, although the numbers were lower than before. -Vaccination levels.
Many credit the vaccination campaign, especially among the very young, for reducing infections. Almost 70 percent of the population is fully vaccinated.
"Rapid and intensive vaccinations in Japan among those under 64 could have created a temporary condition similar to herd immunity"said Dr. Kazuhiro Tateda, a professor of virology at Toho University.
Tateda noted that vaccination rates increased from July to September, just as the most infectious delta variant was spreading rapidly.
However, he cautioned that advances in infections in the US, Britain and other places where inoculations began months earlier than in Japan show that vaccines alone are not perfect and efficacy is gradually wearing off.
Japan’s vaccinations began in mid-February, and healthcare workers and the elderly were first in line. Imported vaccine shortages kept progress slow until late May, when supplies stabilized and daily inoculation targets were raised to more than 1 million doses to maximize protection by July 23 to August 23. 8 Olympic Games.
The number of daily injections increased to around 1.5 million in July, raising vaccination rates from 15% in early July to 65% in early October, surpassing 57% in the United States.
New daily cases spiked just weeks before the Olympics, forcing Japan to hold the Games with a daily case count of more than 5,000 in Tokyo and around 20,000 nationwide in early August. Tokyo reported 40 cases on Sunday, less than 100 for the ninth day in a row and the lowest this year. Nationwide, Japan reported 429 cases on Sunday for a cumulative total of about 1.71 million and 18,000 deaths since the pandemic began early last year.
So why the fall?
“It’s a tough question and we have to consider the effect of vaccine progress, which is extremely large,” said Norio Ohmagari, director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. "At the same time, people who gather in high-risk environments, such as crowded and less ventilated places, may already have been infected and acquired natural immunity.".
Although some speculated that the drop in cases could be due to less testing, data from the Tokyo metropolitan government showed that the positivity rate fell from 25% in late August to 1% in mid-October, while the amount of testing decreased by a third. Masataka Inokuchi, deputy director of the Tokyo Medical Association, said the drop in positivity rates shows that infections have slowed.
Japan’s state of emergency measures were not closures, but rather requests that mainly focused on bars and restaurants, which were asked to close early and not serve alcohol. Many people continued to travel in crowded trains and attended sporting and cultural events in stadiums with some social distancing controls.
Emergency applications have ended and the government is gradually expanding social and economic activity while allowing sporting events and organized trips on a trial basis using vaccination certificates and further testing.
To speed up vaccinations, former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who recently left office, expanded the number of health workers legally eligible to administer vaccines, opened large-scale vaccination centers, and promoted workplace vaccination from late June.
Kyoto University professor Hiroshi Nishiura told a recent government advisory board meeting that he estimates the vaccines helped about 650,000 people avoid infection and saved more than 7,200 lives between March and September.
Many experts initially blamed younger people, seen drinking on the streets and in parks when bars were closed, for spreading the virus, but said the data showed that many in their 40s and 50s were also frequenting. the nightlife districts. The most serious cases and deaths occurred among unvaccinated people 50 years of age or younger.
Takaji Wakita, director of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, recently told reporters that he is concerned that people have already resumed partying in nightlife districts, noting that the slowdown in infections may have bottomed out.
"Looking ahead, it is important to further reduce the number of cases in the event of a future resurgence of infections"Wakita said Thursday.
On Friday, new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that a preparedness plan to be compiled in early November would include stricter limits on activities and would require hospitals to provide more beds and staff for COVID-19 treatment in the event that infections skyrocket in the “worst case”. "
He did not elaborate.
Many people are cautious about letting go of their guard, regardless of the numbers.
Wear a mask "it has become so normal"said college student Mizuki Kawano. "I’m still worried about the virus", said.
“I don’t want to get close to those who don’t wear masks,” said her friend, Alice Kawaguchi.
Public health experts want a comprehensive investigation into why infections have decreased.
An analysis of GPS data showed that the movements of people in the main entertainment districts of downtown decreased during the third most recent state of emergency, which ended on September 30.
"I believe that the decline in people visiting entertainment districts, coupled with the progress of vaccination, has contributed to the decline in infections"said Atsushi Nishida, director of the Research Center for Social Sciences and Medical Sciences at the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Medical Sciences. .
But people returned to the entertainment districts as soon as the recent emergency ended, he said, and that may "affect the infection situation in the next few weeks".
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