The United States authorized the shipment of weapons to Ukraine and Russia announced new naval maneuvers, in a context of strong tensions between the Kremlin and the Western powers that will seek to calm down this Friday with the key meeting between the diplomatic chiefs of both countries. The American President, Joe Biden, Clarified that any kind of Russian incursion into Ukrainian territory will be considered “an invasion” and will have a “severe response”, after the confusion that had been generated by insinuating that Washington would qualify the consequences in the face of a smaller-scale occupation.

The threat of a new war

The United States and its allies warned Russia on Thursday that it would face serious reprisals if “just one” of the tens of thousands of Russian troops massed along the border makes inroads into Ukraine. Any violation by Russia of Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty “would return us to a dangerous and unstable time, when this continent was divided in two (…) with the threat of total war looming over our headssaid US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, from Berlin, a city that was divided by a wall for almost 30 years.

The White House has given its go-ahead to Baltic countries’ requests to send US-made weapons to Ukraine., which proves, according to observers, how far apart the positions of Washington and Moscow remain. A State Department official said the United States is “expediting authorized shipments of US-origin equipment from other allies.”

The approval responded to urgent demands from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to assist Ukraine. US sources did not detail the amount or type of weapons that will be sent, although they are in a position to send anti-armour and anti-aircraft missiles, among other elements.

Blinken held talks with his European allies in the German capital on Thursday, on the eve of a crucial Geneva meeting with the Russians. His French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian, present in Berlin, warned Moscow against wishing to forge a “Yalta 2”, a new division of the spheres of influence between East and West, 77 years after the conference that designed postwar Europe.

In London, Prime Minister Boris Johnson qualified as “disaster for the whole world” an eventual Russian invasion of Ukraine. “Minor incursions” do not exist, said Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski, in response to controversial words from his American counterpart Joe Biden.

“Ukraine does not want war, but is ready”

“We would like to remind the great powers that there are no incursions or small nations. Just as there is no small number of victims and little pain for the loss of loved ones. I say this as president of a great power,” he said. Zelensky in a message from his official Twitter account.

“Isn’t that the reality for eight years? Didn’t the invasion start in 2014? Did the threat of war only arise now? These risks don’t exist for a day and now they are not greater, there is simply more expectation,” assured the president in reference to the Russian annexation of Crimea and the beginning of the conflict in Donbas. Later he added: “Ukraine does not want war, but is always ready for it”.

On Wednesday, Biden had caused confusion by claiming that a “minor incursion” by Russia could provoke a more modest response from NATO allies.. Speaking to the press from the White House, President clarified 24 hours later that there is “no misunderstanding” and that “If any Russian unit crosses the border with Ukraine, that is an invasion”.

If that happens, he warned Russian President Vladimir Putin, “you will be met with a severe and coordinated economic response” from the United States, the European Union (EU) and NATO. “No doubt. Let there be no doubt, if Putin makes this decision, Russia will pay a heavy price.”Biden reiterated.

“This is not the only scenario for which we must be prepared. Russia has a long experience in aggressive measures that are not open military actions,” said the Democratic president, referring to possible “actions carried out by Russian soldiers who do not wear Russian uniform ” or “cyber attacks”. Faced with this scenario, he argued that the country must be “prepared to respond in a united and determined manner.”

Russia announces naval exercises

Moscow, for its part, responded on Thursday by announcing massive naval exercises in January and February in the Atlantic, the Arctic, the Pacific and the Mediterranean. Shortly before, the Kremlin had denounced Biden’s “destabilizing” comments on Ukraine. “The statements are repeated endlessly and do nothing to calm the current tensions. In addition, they can contribute to destabilizing the situation,” warned the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov.

“In total, more than 140 warships and support vessels, more than 60 aircraft, a thousand items of military equipment and some 10,000 soldiers will take part” in these exercises., indicated the Russian Ministry of Defense, quoted by the Sputnik news agency. “The main goal is to deploy naval, air and space forces to protect Russian national interests in the world’s oceans and counter military threats to Russia from seas and oceans,” he added.

In the Black Sea, tensions have been on the rise in recent years. Moscow accuses Ukraine and Western powers of threatening its security off the coast of the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Russia. In June 2021, the Russian fleet had fired warning shots at a British destroyer at that location.

Russia also began this week to deploy an unspecified number of soldiers to Belarus for “improvised” combat readiness exercises on the borders of the European Union (EU) and Ukraine. These military movements occur as a prelude to the negotiations that will take place this Friday in Geneva between Blinken and the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.

The US Secretary of State stated that “we have to see where we stand” and “if there are opportunities to continue diplomacy.” However, he specified that some Russian demands “are clearly doomed to failure”, including the commitment not to extend NATO to Ukraine, as requested by Moscow. Russia also demands that the United States and its allies give up organizing military exercises in Eastern Europe., and considers that all these demands are non-negotiable.

The US sanctioned four Ukrainians

The United States announced this Thursday sanctions against four Ukrainians, including two deputies, accused of being involved in activities to “destabilize” Ukraine and other allied countries “under the direction” of Russian intelligence services. “The United States is acting to expose and counter the dangerous and threatening campaign of influence and disinformation in Ukraine,” Treasury Department Assistant Secretary Wally Adeyemo said in a statement.

Washington accuses the four sanctioned officials of working for the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB, former KGB). Two of those targeted are Taras Kozak and Oleh Voloshyn, both members of the Ukrainian Parliament. The Treasury claimed that Kozak, owner of several news channels in Ukraine, has developed a disinformation campaign to “denigrate” some advisers to Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky and “amplify false narratives” about the 2020 US election.

The other two Ukrainians designated by Washington are Volodimir Oliynyk and Vladimir Sivkovich, the latter former deputy secretary of the National Security Council of Ukraine whom he accuses of coordinating activities to favor the cession of Crimea to Russia. As a consequence of these designations, assets they may have under US jurisdiction are frozen and financial transactions with US entities are prohibited.

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