After two years of war in Ukraine, how would you describe the current situation on the front?
The situation at the front is precarious for Ukrainian defenders. The great uncertainty over whether additional US military aid will arrive and Europe’s inability to make up for the lack of US supplies mean that Ukraine’s armed forces now face a serious shortage of artillery shells and air defense ammunition. Avdiivka is the Russian armed forces’ first major victory in almost a year, and they have paid an incredibly high price in personnel and material for it.
Given the stalemate on the battlefield, do you think negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are closer?
Unless the situation worsens dramatically on both sides, I think both will want to wait for the US presidential election before rethinking their strategies. Meanwhile, preparations are underway for an international peace conference in Switzerland in the spring, aimed at bringing together stakeholders from around the world to explore ways to achieve a just, equitable and sustainable peace based on the principles of the ONU Charter to reach.
Do the new appointments at the top of the Ukrainian army mean a change in military strategy?
I think it’s too early to say that. Ukraine’s strategy will likely shift to active defense by 2024 to maintain and rebuild its armed forces and conduct targeted deep strikes to further increase the costs of the Russian invasion.
Would Zelensky be the right person to represent Ukraine in these hypothetical negotiations?
In the first weeks of the war, before Russian atrocities in Bucha and Mariupol crippled most communication channels between Kiev and Moscow, Zelensky signaled that he was ready to meet with Putin to discuss issues at the highest level and reach an agreement. Putin refused. I doubt he will be more willing to talk to Zelensky today.
Could Donald Trump’s eventual return to the White House accelerate events?
Possibly; to the detriment of Ukraine and Europe. Given Trump’s attempts to force Ukraine to dig up information about Joe Biden, which led to his first impeachment in 2019, and his comments on the campaign trail, Trump’s strategy would amount to making a deal with Putin and leaving Ukraine behind to let yourself. This would severely test NATO’s unity and bring about a moment in which Russia quickly rearms and takes courage.
Do you see a threat to US military aid?
Recent polls suggest that a majority of Americans, including a plurality of Republicans, continue to support aid to Ukraine. But Trump’s MAGA clan has decided to use it as a wedge in his presidential campaign to mobilize core voters so that a small faction within the House Republican caucus could prevent a relief measure from being voted on. what it would mean to win. So there is great uncertainty about US military aid to Ukraine.
