Pro-XRP attorney John Deaton, the founder of CryptoLaw, recently shared his assessment of the outcome of the ongoing lawsuit between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to him, Ripple has a 25% chance of an outright victory. This ruling comes at a crucial stage in the long-running lawsuit.
Deaton, who has consistently voiced his support for Ripple, also said the SEC has less than a 3% chance of winning this case. This is mainly related to the allegation, dating back to December 2020, that the sale of Ripple’s XRP token actually represents an unregistered securities offering.
Meanwhile, and almost simultaneously, rumors are circulating about a possible Ripple IPO. This new element throws an extra layer of complexity and intrigue on this already complicated case.
Will there be a settlement?
On the June 3 episode of “The Good Morning Crypto” podcast, attorney John expanded on his assessment of the ongoing lawsuit between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to Deaton, there is a 25% chance that Judge Torres will rule in favor of Ripple. In addition, he believes there is a 50% chance that Ripple will claim victory via a ‘splitting the baby’ ruling.
The term “splitting the baby” refers to a hypothetical ruling by Judge Torres, where she would make a distinction in the timeline of the XRP offerings. She could decide that XRP was offered as an unregistered security before 2018, but the status changed after that.
This possibility arose in the wake of the so-called Hinman documents. These documents, which include internal SEC communications related to a speech by former SEC director William Hinman, suggest that cryptocurrencies could change status — from securities to commodities — once they become sufficiently decentralized.