Referendum on the sovereignty of Scotland: the questions which arise after the victory of the separatists in the legislative elections

Will we soon have to remove the blue from the Union Jack? Since the victory of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the general elections on 6 May, the question of Scottish independence has come back to the UK again. With the Greens, the Scottish separatists now have a majority in the Holyrood Parliament in Edinburgh in favor of a break with London. From her victory speech, the Scottish Prime Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, recalled, quoted by Reuters*, “the right for the Scots to decide their future”. Much to the chagrin of the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, fiercely opposed to holding a second consultation (the first having taken place in 2014). Franceinfo reviews the questions that arise on the possibility of organizing a “indyref2”, as the British media call it.

1What do the results of the parliamentary elections of May 6 change?

Scotland, which has had a Parliament since the Scotland Act of 1998 (which transferred many prerogatives to Edinburgh) voted to renew its MPs and government. With 64 seats out of 129, the SNP failed to obtain an absolute majority except for one vote. But pro-independence MPs have increased their presence in the Scottish Parliament, thanks to the push from the Greens, who have won eight elected.

“It is very interesting, because the British media have portrayed winning 64 seats as a lost bet for the SNP, when it is a very clear victory., underlines Coree Brown Swan, political science researcher at the University of Edinburgh, interviewed by franceinfo. We must not forget that the Scottish electoral system is proportional, it is made in such a way that a majority is very hard to achieve. “ With this quasi-majority of the SNP and this strengthening of environmentalists, the supporters of independence are in a position of strength. Logical, therefore, that Lorna Slater, co-leader of the Scottish Greens*, declares, in the Canberra Times, to have obtained with the SNP “a clear mandate to demand a new referendum”.

2Why is the question of independence being debated again in Scotland?

The theme of independence is not new. It crosses the Scottish nation, which united with England in 1707, for several decades. The question seemed to have been decided in 2014 “for a generation “, according to the words* of the former Prime Minister David Cameron, during the organization of a first referendum, where the pro-union camp had won by 55.4%. But Brexit has happened there, and the separatists, in power for fourteen years in Edinburgh, believe that it is reshuffling the cards. “Brexit has changed the game vis-à-vis independence”, wrote Nicola Sturgeon, in a column published by Politico* at the beginning of the year.

It must be said that, during this referendum on Brexit, Scotland stood out from England and Wales, voting overwhelmingly (68%) to stay in the European Union. Many Scots have since felt dispossessed of their choices in the face of the London government’s stubbornness on the issue. The political disconnection of the Scottish nation from the rest of the UK is not helping. As England leans more and more to the right, the SNP and its political line located in the center-left are often found well isolated in the United Kingdom. “Conservatives are hated north of the border”, points out Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst at Eurasia Group, un political risk consulting firm, requested by franceinfo.

3What is the UK government’s response?

For now, the British government rejects the possibility of organizing a new vote. In an interview with Daily Telegraph*, Prime Minister Boris Johnson judged holding a vote during the pandemic as an act “irresponsible and reckless”. “There is a sense of temporary relief in Downing Street [la résidence du Premier ministre britannique], notes Mujtaba Rahman. If Nicola Sturgeon had had a majority, it would have created an immediate problem for Boris Johnson, because he would have had to react immediately. “ But basically, the SNP and the Greens having been elected on the promise to organize a referendum, “things don’t change”, judge the specialist, for whom “the question will arise again once the pandemic is over”.

Will Boris Johnson be able to refuse a vote indefinitely? Nothing is less sure. “The Scottish question is going to be one of the main challenges of the British Prime Minister’s term of office, emphasizes the analyst. It really is the calm before the storm. “ Especially since by refusing a vote, the Conservative Prime Minister seems to validate Nicola Sturgeon’s arguments, according to which London is trampling the will of the Scottish people. The leader of the SNP has also hammered* after his victory, as the Associated Press reports, that the organization of a new vote “was a question of when, and not if”.

It will be necessary, then, to find arguments to “sell” the union to the Scottish voters. So far, the UK government’s strategy seems to be limited to “transfer money directly to local councils, bypassing the Scottish government”, highlighted Mujtaba Rahman. A way of remembering that if Edinburgh manages certain prerogatives, such as health, London is still in charge.

4What do the separatists plan to do?

Nicola Sturgeon is not necessarily in a hurry to organize a new consultation. “I think she will wait, points out Coree Brown Swan. With such a large majority, there is no reason to rush to hold a referendum. “ The head of the Scottish government has also explained, in his victory speech*, want to organize a vote only after having “brought the country out of the Covid ” and during “of the next legislature”, i.e. before mid-2026.

Above all, the “yes” to independence has peaked for a few months in the polls at 50%. A figure far too low for supporters of an exit from the United Kingdom. “I think she wants a safety cushion, with polls at 60%, emphasizes Mujtaba Rahman. The separatists go there to win, not to lose. “ In the meantime, the SNP is counting on the consequences of Brexit on the British economy, already visible in the Scottish fishing sector, to plead its case with voters.

5Could the holding of a referendum be played out in court?

If London continues to refuse to organize a vote, Nicola Sturgeon warned, as explained The Herald, that she counted* pass a law authorizing the holding of a referendum and go to court if it is prevented from going through to the end by the British government. The arguments of the Scottish separatists are well established: Scotland having entered, as a nation, into a voluntary union with England in 1707, it is up to her alone to decide to leave it.

But according to British constitutional laws, the holding of a referendum is a prerogative of the central government of London. The question could therefore be decided by the judges of the Supreme Court. Most experts expect the Scots’ request to be rejected. But the legal route is not the most likely, because it is not traditionally favored by the British. “In the UK, we favor political compromise over judicial decisions”, notes Coree Brown Swan.

6Could Scotland hold a referendum on its own?

This solution is openly rejected by Nicola Sturgeon, who carefully observed what happened in Catalonia in 2017. The Barcelona government had organized a referendum, deemed illegal by Madrid, on its independence from Spain. Result: the situation has since been blocked, some Catalan leaders are in prison and the results have not been recognized by the international community.

“SNP leaders have been clear on their desire not to defy the law or to organize a unilateral Catalan referendum”, summarized Michael Keating, professor of politics at the University of Aberdeen, in the Guardian*. A compromise could be found with the organization of a consultative referendum. “Such a vote could put pressure on Westminster [siège du gouvernement britannique], while offering a free kick for the Scots, without consequence “, thinks Mujtaba Rahman.

7Could the “yes” win?

In 2020, the polls gave the “yes” winner for several months. But the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the difficulties faced by Nicola Sturgeon in 2021, especially with his former mentor and former Prime Minister Alex Salmond, have helped bring these numbers down. The “yes” now tops out at 50%, with a still very significant part of the undecided. It is therefore difficult to say where Scottish opinion will be in a few years.

To convince voters of the merits of its divorce proposal, the SNP will in any case have to propose a credible plan in terms of the economy. “This will be the key, confirms Coree Brown Swan. There should be a clear answer on the question of the border with the United Kingdom, as well as on the future currency of Scotland. “ With Brexit, and the uncertainty it brings to the UK, some former “no” voters might be tempted to say “yes” to a “Scotxit”.

“In 2014, the pro-unions explained that by remaining in the United Kingdom, the Scots also remained in the EU. But there, leaving the United Kingdom will bring Scotland back into the EU. Those who have to lose economically might change their mind. “

Mujtaba Rahman

analyst at Eurasia Group, at franceinfo

The referendum could in any case be played on a factor other than economic questions. “In the case of Brexit, the choice was made on an emotional level and not on a rational level”, explains Mujtaba Rahman. According to the analyst, Brexit won “because it was addressed to the heart, and not to the mind “. The same could well happen with a vote on Scottish independence. “It is very hard now to make an emotional argument in favor of union, notes Coree Brown Swan. The answer cannot simply be to put flags on everything. “

Whether they are realistic or not, the arguments of the separatists are clear. Freed from the yoke of London, they say, Scotland would become a member of the EU again, even if a return to the union would not be automatic, and would be inspired by the democracies of northern Europe to take off. Opposite, Boris Johnson confines himself for the moment to recalling that the United Kingdom is “stronger together”. This is exactly the kind of argument used by the pro-EU camp during the British referendum of 2016. We know the rest.

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