Russian President Vladimir Putin usually measures his words well in public. knows how to calculate every silence, every message, every threat, to ensure that NATO and the European Union understand exactly what he means and how far he is willing to go. And always leave a little room for uncertainty.
But this Thursday’s State of the Union address was different than the others, and for the first time there seems to be a consensus about it We are not dealing with simple bravery. His warning that he has new nuclear weapons that “can destroy civilization” has sparked fear in the West and raised a worrying question: Is there really some danger of a third world war, and a nuclear one at that?
The only answer, of course, is the Kremlin’s tenant, but there are five keys that can help us understand why this speech is different from the others:
1. All or nothing in the Ukrainian war. The first worrying message from Putin’s speech is that he has tied his political future to the Russian victory in Ukraine. That means there’s no need to read between the lines to get the message: Under no circumstances is he prepared to lose the war or withdraw from territories already conquered.. No matter how many weapons the West wants to supply to Ukraine (and these still arrive in small quantities), Moscow will always supply more weapons and more soldiers than the enemy. For every offer from Europe and NATO, there is another “offer” from Russia. If Ukraine fails to turn things around, the future is not promising.
2. Russia gains ground (and wins the war?). The battle in the story is also important, no matter how close it is to reality, and the narrative of the war has changed in recent weeks. More and more voices are admitting that Russia not only withstood the blow and stopped the Ukrainian counteroffensive, but they also openly admit that they won the war. The loss of the strategic enclave Avdivka was a blow to Kiev, although it denies this. Ukraine desperately needs a victory.
3. Macron crosses a red line (and goes against it). Europe also appears to have lost the war of threats after French President Emmanuel Macron hinted that the West might decide to send troops to drive Russia out of Ukraine. The reaction of NATO and major countries has shown that France is bluffing, but it has emboldened Putin and given him wings to threaten a forceful response if this scenario occurs.
4. Military power unlimited? from Putin. After two years of war, Russia’s predicted economic collapse has not occurred, although it is still not ruled out that it could occur, and Moscow appears to be holding its own in the military battle in terms of both weapons and human resources. The tight control over the opposition and society contributes to public opinion accepting a high death toll, which is not the case on the other side of the front.
5. A leader without replacement. The latest bad news for the West is that not only does Putin appear to be in absolute control of power (he has an official vote intention of 79% for the next election), but that neither the White House nor Europe is clear about it that the successor will not do this will happen. could be worse. The death of opponent Alexei Navalny has shown that there is no replacement for the Russian president. And by the way, they seem to indicate that he will continue to have the nuclear button at hand.
