The oil prices ended close to equilibrium yesterday, first weighed down by the fears of new benchmark rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed, central bank) before being boosted by the good news of US demand for refined products.
In New York, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery due in August, rose one cent (+0.01%), at $71.80.
In London, the price of a barrel of North Sea Brent for September delivery ended slightly lower, 0.16%, at $76.52.
Traders first reacted to the figures from the monthly ADP/Stanford Lab survey, which reported 497,000 job creations in Junemore than double what economists expected (220,000), a peak since February 2022.
This number “reinforced fears that the Fed would raise rates, which would slow the economy and oil demand,” said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group. “Fear was instilled in the oil market and prices plummeted,” the analyst explained.
He The market now assigns a probability of almost half (46%) to the scenario of two additional rate hikes at the end of the yeara hypothesis that a month ago was considered insane.
But after falling more than 2%, WTI rose on the back of another report, from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), which highlighted a volume of refined products delivered to the US at a six-month high for the week. which ended on June 30.
In four weeks, the indicator most followed by analysts, product deliveries, which reflect US demand, are 3.5% higher than their level last year at the same time.
This data “is extremely supportive for prices,” Phil Flynn said.
Traders especially highlighted the acceleration in demand for gasoline, which has not reached current volumes since October 2021.
“Demand is very strong,” Flynn noted, despite fears that a slowdown was looming.
However, heThe sequence of Thursday “puts even more emphasis on the monthly employment report” from the Department of Labor, expected for Friday and considered more reliable than the ADP survey data. “If it confirms these incredible jobs numbers, the (black gold) market could get scared,” he said.
