Do you think NATO could send soldiers to Ukraine in the future if Russia advances dangerously towards Kiev?
NATO will not send troops to Ukraine as this could lead to a general war with Russia. French President Macron recently proposed sending French troops to Ukraine to train and advise Ukrainian troops. President Macron’s aim is to support Ukraine’s war aims but also to promote strategic autonomy in European defense as a pillar of the European Union in NATO (although in more general terms this is a realistic and even desirable option for the development future NATO is). In the case of Ukraine, this was rejected by the United States and other key NATO allies such as the United Kingdom as not currently feasible and not a realistic response to the current circumstances of the conflict. It is believed that President Macron’s proposals are too provocative and forceful, unrealistic in the short and medium term and could unnecessarily increase tensions without much benefit to NATO and Ukraine.
Do you think Russia’s threats to use the atomic bomb are credible?
Current Russian military doctrine, developed between 2008 and 2014, emphasizes the use of tactical nuclear weapons (significantly more powerful than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945) when Russian territory is attacked or 20 percent of Russian territory is of strategic importance ambushed. The nuclear submarine fleet is destroyed by an enemy. It is clear that the Kremlin considers Ukraine to be “Russian territory.” Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons may be ground- and sea-based missiles and aircraft for limited battlefield use in Europe and Asia, as opposed to larger strategic nuclear weapons aimed at the United States. The problem here is that the threshold for a Russian nuclear retaliation is quite low and must be taken seriously. Despite their differences, it is also worth noting that Beijing and Moscow first signed a nuclear weapons ban treaty in 2001 and have been deepening their relations (within certain limits) since the start of the Ukraine war.
Should Ukraine negotiate a peace with Russia by giving up 20% of its territory to avoid thousands of deaths in a prolonged war?
Two years after the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war, fighting on the front remains stagnant, with Russia recently making slight progress in Ukraine’s eastern sectors. There are different opinions about what the West’s war strategy should be. There are analysts who support sending NATO troops to Ukraine, which is opposed by the US and key NATO member states. Others favor a diplomatic solution and a ceasefire in which Ukraine hands over twenty percent of its territory to Russia under a deal negotiated by the international community. NATO and Ukraine rejected this proposal. Then there are those who support the continuation of Western military and civilian aid programs for Ukraine. However, this is being questioned as the recent $60 billion aid package has been repeatedly blocked in the US Congress. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected the possibility of ceding territory and direct negotiations with Russia. There is also war weariness in the USA and NATO. This further complicates the situation. Moscow’s strategy focused on persuading Western states to accept the inevitability of a Russian victory in Ukraine. Ukraine, NATO, the US and European countries have rejected this approach and have not accepted the logic of the Kremlin’s argument. As things stand, Western strategy towards Ukraine will likely continue to focus on providing military assistance, but this could change with changes in the White House after the November elections.
Do you think the US will stop supplying weapons to Ukraine if Trump wins the November election?
The situation in Ukraine is extremely serious as Russia is making minor territorial gains in eastern Ukraine. The shortage of ammunition is worrying and is now also affecting the recruitment of the Ukrainian army. The EU recently approved $50 in aid for Ukraine, but the United States is withholding $60 in aid. This is a problem for President Zelensky. Former US President Donald Trump and the right wing of the Republican Party don’t seem to care. They are more interested in securing the border with Mexico and U.S. national security, as this is popular with many U.S. voters. CIA Director Bill Burns said that not supporting Ukraine would be a huge mistake of “historic proportions.” If Donald Trump is elected US President in November, US strategy could shift towards less support for NATO and Ukraine. This would be welcomed by President Putin and would likely solidify the war into some kind of frozen conflict. In such a scenario, Europe and the EU must take a step forward without American leadership and the EU must also develop its military component accordingly.
