Scientists are keeping a close eye on a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, whose chances of colliding with Earth in 2032 are increasing. But where could it potentially fall? Is Mexico a target? These are the possible scenarios that are being warned about. The asteroid’s probability of collision is still relatively low, but it’s essential to consider the potential consequences.
If the asteroid were to hit Earth, it would have the destructive power of a city. The European Space Agency’s Coordination Center for objects close to land estimates that the asteroid could be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, with a danger level of 3 on the Turin scale, which ranges from 0 to 10. However, the probabilities can be much lower once more detailed studies of its trajectory are conducted.
To put this into perspective, this asteroid is not like the massive one that hit Earth 66 million years ago, leading to the extinction of dinosaurs. Nevertheless, the last significant impact on our planet was in 2013, when the Chelyabinsk meteorite, which was smaller, fell in Siberia, Russia, and caused injuries to 1,500 people and damaged thousands of buildings in six cities.
Although the exact trajectory is not yet known, possible impact sites include the Eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and Southern Asia. If it were to fall into a body of water, it could still cause a tsunami if it landed near the coast.
Several countries could be affected by asteroid YR4 in 2032. If it were to impact land, the potentially affected countries could be Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The director of the NASA NEO JPL Studies Center, Paul Chodas, compared the probability of a direct impact to the way the National Meteorological Service determines the likelihood of hurricanes touching down on Earth.
Despite the alarm that a potential impact could cause, experts claim that the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth is only 1.6%. The UN calculated the possibility of impact at just over 1.5%, which was later recalculated to 2.3%. However, experts say this probability could be 0 in the near future.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 presents a challenge for observations, as it is moving towards a position where astronomers will not be able to observe it for about three years. With the current data available, astronomers estimate not only a possible impact in 2032 but also seven possibilities between 2032 and 2079. The first potential impact date is December 22, 2032.
If further observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 determine that it is on a collision course with Earth, we have already demonstrated our ability to deflect an asteroid. The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully collided with and moved an asteroid called Dimorphos in 2022. Dimorphos was much larger than the 2024 YR4 asteroid, with a diameter of 160 meters. So, if it is determined that asteroid 2024 YR4 will impact Earth, we are, at least, somewhat prepared.