From Rio de Janeiro
From any point of view you look at it, there is no doubt: Lula da Silva is the favorite to win the presidential elections in October, in the first or second round.
Why is Lula a favorite and what does it mean that he is?
Lula is the favorite in the polls, in which he never falls below 40% of the preferences. In which he not only has a reasonable advantage over Jair Bolsonaro, but he also has a much lower rejection than the current president.
Lula leads the polls in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, in addition to having exponential votes in the northeast: 62% in the first round in Bahia, 72% in Pernambuco and an average always above 60% throughout the region.
The opposition plays with the reactivation of antipetism, which was the strongest slogan of the right against the PT, based on accusations of corruption, on the supposed moral risks of a Lula victory, on the threat of reproduction here of demonized regimes such as those of Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua. In addition to the traditional warnings about possible situations of social unrest, popular mobilizations to attack institutional and media targets.
The dispute, from this point of view, would be between anti-Bolsonarism and antipetism. The situation turned against the rightwhen anti-Bolsonarism became greater than antipetism.
But Lula’s greatest favoritism does not come from these aspects, but rather from elsewhere. In the electoral campaign, Lula will have a performance that will lead him to gain support on an even greater scale, generating an overwhelming movement of supporters.
Lula’s favoritism will come mainly from his campaign. In the first place, because of Lula’s language, because of his sensitivity in speaking with all sectors of the population. The caravans through Brazil, in which I was able to participate, were a confirmation of this full identity, of this reciprocal love between Lula and the people.
In addition, Lula has a speech that reflects the concerns of the great mass of the population: hunger, misery, unemployment, precarious work, lack of rights. Lula criticizes the catastrophe that the Bolsonaro government is, both for the mass of workers and for the country, even throughout the world.
Based on the current disastrous situation of the workers, Lula recalls how everyone’s life was much better when the PT ruled the country. He recalls the reasons for this, since there was work for everyone, since social and regional inequalities had drastically decreased.
Lula refined this discourse through hundreds of meetings with different sectors of the population, from llandless workers in their camps, even youth from the periphery, with unions, women, black movements. Lula broadcasts her speech, preparing the militancy of the social movements for the campaign.
Lula’s campaign tends to become a tsunami, an overwhelming movement, with more and more supporters and participation from different sectors of the population. Mass gatherings tend to multiply, Lula’s arrival will always be a great event in the cities and everywhere he goes.
Political adhesions are already a reality, much more so than the parties that officially support them. In the Northeast, this phenomenon is already a reality, bringing Lula the support of politicians and candidates from almost all parties and currents.
What politician would not want to add Lula’s image to his campaign? And which one will want to associate his name with that of the worn-out Bolsonaro and his government?
In summary, throughout the campaign Lula tends to grow, raising the support he receives to levels that no presidential candidate has ever had. The campaign must be the largest mass event the country has ever known, consecrating Lula as the only great national popular leader in Brazil.
As the polarization between the two strongest candidates consolidates even more, the useful vote tends to favor them more and more, expanding the preference for Lula. He has his historical votes, with those who adhered to his speech, with those who will vote for him to defeat Bolsonaro and with those who will vote as the most favorable option to get the country out of the worst crisis in its history.
Those who wonder when Lula will start his campaign do not realize that it started a long time ago. That this is the campaign that Lula will carry out and that her favoritism should increase.
