Japan is bracing for a massive earthquake that could strike anytime within the next 30 years. The predicted damage is staggering: 1.8 trillion dollars and 300,000 lives lost.
This disaster scenario is based on a report from Japan’s Cabinet Office, which warns of a megaquake occurring off the Pacific coast. The earthquake could trigger a devastating tsunami, destroy hundreds of buildings, and leave thousands dead.
The estimated damage of 1.81 trillion dollars is equivalent to nearly half of Japan’s GDP. This figure has increased significantly from previous estimates due to inflation and new geographical data that expands the area at risk of flooding.
Japan is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world, and the government estimates an 80% chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake occurring along the Nankai Trough, a 900-kilometer-long fault line off the coast of western Japan.
In the worst-case scenario, a 9.0 magnitude earthquake could force the evacuation of 1.23 million people, approximately 10% of the population, and result in nearly 300,000 deaths from the tsunami and building collapses, especially if it occurs in the middle of winter.
The Nankai Trough is a fault line where the Philippine Sea plate is being pushed beneath the Eurasian plate, causing a buildup of energy that could lead to a massive earthquake every 100 to 150 years.
Last year, Japan issued its first-ever warning of a potential megaquake, citing a high likelihood of a 9.0 magnitude earthquake in the Nankai Trough following a 7.1 magnitude earthquake in the area.
A 9.0 magnitude earthquake in 2011 triggered a massive tsunami that caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster, resulting in over 15,000 deaths.
According to the Japanese government, massive earthquakes have occurred in the Nankai Trough every 100 to 200 years over the past 1,400 years, with the last one happening in 1946, or 79 years ago.
As the secretary of the earthquake research committee told AFP, the likelihood of another massive earthquake increases by 1 percent every year, and it has been 79 years since the last big one.
Source: channelnewsasia
