The entire Middle East is currently holding its breath over a possible response by the Iranian regime to Monday’s bombing by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, in which seven security force officials were murdered. the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including the commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria, Brigadier General Mohamed Reza Zahediand his deputy, General Mohamed Hadi Haj Rahimi.
Fears of impending Iranian action have led the Israeli government to increase personnel and the number of reservists in the air force and to suspend permits for its troops, and the Israeli population has been considering options for refuge in recent hours. “Based on the situation assessment, we have decided to temporarily suspend the permits for all IDF combat units,” the Israeli military command said on Thursday. Additionally, on the same day, Tel Aviv began selectively disrupting GPS service across the country to prevent possible missile or drone attacks.
It is by no means the first Israeli attack against the interests of the mullahs’ regime in recent times, but the relevance of what happened on Tuesday is greater due to two factors: It took place in a diplomatic headquarters, which is equivalent to Iranian soil according to international standards Right and with the rank of General Zahedi, as he is the highest ranking Iranian representative ever killed on Syrian soil and the main leader of the elite military corps after the death of Qasem Soleimani.
The history of confrontations between the region’s two arch-enemies is a long one. At the end of December last year, Iran accused Israel of eliminating the general Razi Mousavi, Revolutionary Guard advisor, in a bomber on the outskirts of Damascus. Four days later, Tehran announced that it had executed four suspected spies with ties to the Mossad. On January 2, a bombing attributed to Israel ended in a Beirut suburb, claiming the life of one of Hamas’ main leaders, Saleh al-Arouri.
On the 20th of the same month, an attack attributed to Israel killed five members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard – including the head of Syria’s intelligence service – and several Syrian soldiers in a residential building in Damascus. Just over a week later, three American soldiers died at a base in northeastern Jordan as a result of a drone strike attributed to a militia affiliated with the Iranian regime.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a non-governmental organization based in London, Israel has carried out up to 30 attacks on Syrian territory against Iranian and Hezbollah forces so far in 2024. The IDF on Syrian territory, the first of which was a bomb attack also on Monday against a scientific research area in Yamraya, also in Damascus.
Verbal escalation
Although epithets against “the Zionist regime” from representatives of the Iranian regime are common, the threatening tone has increased. On Tuesday the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei He assured that “the evil regime (referring to Israel) will be punished by our brave men.” “We will, with the help of God, make them repent of this and other crimes.”
During the celebrations in Tehran for World Al-Quds Day (referring to the city of Jerusalem) and the funeral in memory of the slain Revolutionary Guards commanders, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, General of the Division Hosein salamideclared that Israel “now lives under the artificial respiration of the United States and cannot escape the uprisings it has caused” and assured that Hamas “will bury the Zionist regime in Gaza.”
Despite repeated threats from high-ranking regime officials, Tehran has so far avoided a direct confrontation with Tel Aviv – which would also be directed against the USA – because it is aware of the country’s military inferiority. In their calculations, the Israeli authorities do not overlook the weak situation of the regime led by Ayatollah Khamenei, which continues to face a very difficult domestic economic situation and has had to work hard in recent months to implement its repressive machinery in order to generate a pro-democracy reaction from the population after the death of the young woman in September 2022 Mahsa Amini in the hands of the moral police for not wearing the Islamic veil appropriate according to the criteria of theocracy.
In addition, the regime has recently been hit hard by terrorist organizations. Earlier on January 3, the Islamic State’s regional affiliate claimed responsibility for a massacre that left 85 people dead during celebrations marking the fourth anniversary of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani at Kerman Cemetery. On Thursday this week, militias from the Sunni group Jaish al Adl attacked two Revolutionary Guard barracks in Sistan and Balochistan province, causing at least eleven deaths.
However, since the Hamas terrorist massacre on October 7, the Iranian regime has continuously attacked Israel and its closest ally, the United States, through proxy forces led by Hezbollah from its Lebanese base and the Yemeni rebels known as the Houthis – with their attack strategy im Red Sea. The strength of these militias, among which we must include Shia armed groups based in Syria and Iraq, lies in their invisible and disparate strategy and in the fact that they often direct their attacks against the civilian population. Tehran also has close ties with two other members of the self-proclaimed “Axis of Resistance,” the Sunni organizations Hamas and Islamic Jihad, who essentially harbor hatred and a desire for the destruction of Israel.
For all of these reasons, an Iranian response through one of these intermediate forces remains more likely at this time, as has been the case since last October. The largest of these forces is none other than Hezbollah, a party militia that has transformed itself into a state within a failed state like modern-day Lebanon. Although Tel Aviv has been hit hard since October – about 280 victims – the organization was founded in 1982 and led by Hasan Nasrallah and Israel has been crossing the border in a steady trickle the entire time.
Amos Yadlin, former head of Israeli intelligence, assured in the last hours that the Iranian authorities could have chosen yesterday with the symbolism of the last Ramadan and the celebration of Jerusalem Day in response to the Israeli arch-enemy. The next few hours will be crucial for Israel and the entire region, which has already been embroiled in a war on seven fronts since October last year.