Is ‘ISS’ nearing its end? Orbital Lab and Russia’s relationship with the West is breaking down due to a decision by Putin, know the reason for this decision

Russia Leaving ISS: Russia intends to withdraw from the International Space Station (ISS) after 2024, Yuri Borisov, the new head of the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, announced in a meeting with Vladimir Putin on July 26, 2022. Borisov also said that future efforts will be focused on a new Russian space station. According to current agreements on the ISS it is operational until 2024 and the station requires a Russian module to remain in orbit. The US and its allies want to extend the station’s service life to 2030. Russia’s announcement, though not a breach of any agreement or an immediate threat to the station’s daily operations, does mark the culmination of months of political tensions involving the ISS.

In its 23-year lifetime, the station has been a striking example of how Russia and the US can work together despite being former adversaries. This cooperation has been particularly important as relations between the two countries have deteriorated in recent years. While it is not yet clear whether the Russians will comply with this announcement, the announcement poses a major obstacle to the conduct of the most successful international cooperation in space ever. As a scholar who studies space policy, I think the question now is whether political relations have deteriorated so much that it has become impossible to work together in space.

What would this evacuation look like?

Russia operates six of the ISS’s 17 modules—including Zvezda, which houses the main engine system. This engine is critical to the station’s ability to remain in orbit and stay out of the way of dangerous space debris. Under the ISS agreements, Russia retains full control and legal authority over its modules. At the moment it is not clear how Russia will return. Russia’s announcement only talks about ‘after 2024’. Additionally, Russia did not say whether it would allow ISS partners to take control of the Russian module and continue operating the station, or whether it would require the module to be completely shut down.

Given that Russian modules are essential to station operation, it is uncertain whether the station will be able to function without them. It is also unclear whether it will be possible to isolate the Russian module from the rest of the ISS, as it was designed to interconnect the entire station. Depending on how and when Russia decides to exit the station, partner countries will have to make tough choices about whether to remove the ISS altogether or find creative solutions to keep it in the sky.

political tension

The announcement is the latest in a series of ISS-related incidents since Russia first invaded Ukraine in February. Russia’s decision to leave should not have a significant impact on the day-to-day functioning of the ISS. Like many minor incidents in the past months, this is a political action. The first incident occurred in March, when three Russian cosmonauts emerged from their capsules in yellow and blue flight suits that resemble the color of the Ukrainian flag. Despite the similarities, the Russian authorities never spoke of this coincidence. Then, on July 7, 2022, NASA publicly criticized Russia for showing a photograph. In the photo, three Russian cosmonauts pose with flags attached to areas occupied by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.

There has been no disruption in the operation of the station. Astronauts aboard the station conduct dozens of experiments every day, as well as joint spacewalks. But a significant effect of rising tensions was that Russia stopped participating in joint experiments with European countries on the ISS. Little is available about how Russia’s withdrawal will affect the use of its modules, which, in the short term, seem to have the greatest impact on scientific experiments.

Why now?

It is not clear why Russia has just made this announcement. Tensions about the ISS have increased since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. At the time, the then head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, said that there might be a possibility of Russia leaving the ISS. However, Rogozin was recently removed from his position, and NASA and Roscosmos announced a seat swap for the ISS. Under the deal, an American astronaut will be sent to the station on a future Soyuz mission while an astronaut will be sent from the upcoming SpaceX Dragon launch.

This development seemed to suggest that the two sides might still be able to find ways to work together in space. But it seems that those were deceptive things. The announcement comes at a time when the US is considering a future beyond the ISS. NASA is currently in the first phase of development of a commercial space station. Accelerating the development of this new space station will be difficult, but it does indicate that the ISS is nearing the end of its productive and inspiring life, no matter what Russia does.

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