According to forecasts, the El Niño phenomenon could raise average temperatures in 2023 and 2024 to the highest recorded so far, putting the planet at a level of risk never reached before.
After three years of La Niña, whose influences extended to the global climate, this climate regime has now faded away. It is expected to be replaced by a warm tropical Pacific Ocean phase in the coming months.
The phenomenon known as “El Niño” has the power to change the normality of the climate, especially with regard to storms and precipitation. When these accumulate, they can cause floodseven if it is sometimes.
Early studies predict that the year 2023, and specifically 2024, could be the highest average global temperature on record, bringing the planet dangerously close to the threshold where global warming would begin.
Argentine weather can experience excessive rainfall in the spring-summer season, as well as higher than normal temperatures with high humidity.
Predictions about the strength of the 2023/24 El Niño phenomenon are still unclear. Some weather forecasts show it to be a moderate event, while other reports suggest it would be quite intense.
As the year progresses and we enter the active phase of winter and spring, it will become clearer to understand just how extreme environmental changes are and what kind of local and global effect they will have on rainfall rates and temperatures.
El Niño is almost a fact
Forecasts indicate that the “El Niño” phenomenon will begin in July of this year, giving rise to a winter-spring period with more humidity than normal.
Forecasts indicate that the “El Niño” phenomenon will have a 70% influence on the Argentine climate in the near future. This could cause significant changes in weather patterns in the medium term.
more rains
After a long period of fighting droughts and high temperatures, the outlook for autumn 2023 looks much better, with the possibility of increased rainfall. The behavior of the temperature in the Pacific Ocean will be the key to determine the climate during this season. Central Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil may see more precipitation compared to other regions due to earlier and greater warming this season.
First signs of El Niño
Recently, the ‘La Niña’ pattern disappeared and caused several wet pulses that resulted in abundant rainfall during the month of March. This points to a change in the flow of humid air in the center of our country, according to the portal infoagro.
In this context, they point out that “as a result of the behavior of the climate in the month of March, added to the presence of a ‘Coastal Child or Modoki Child’ on the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, climate models are already beginning to indicate this tendency for the El Niño is anticipated and starts in the first semester or in the transition from the first to the second”.
What is El Niño
The El Niño phenomenon is a situation in which the equatorial Pacific Ocean experiences a temperature increase of up to 3°C above the normal range, causing several changes in weather patterns around the world. Temperature fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean are usually caused by El Niño and La Niña. El Niño represents an increase in temperature, while La Niña describes cooler than normal temperatures, with each event following the other.
A Wetter Autumn
As we transition from March into April and May, rainfall is expected to be more consistent with average levels. Unfortunately, for some agricultural areas of the country, it may be too late to reap significant benefits.
In order for the water systems of some Argentine provinces to return to their optimal levels, it is essential to increase the ambient humidity. This would lead to more frequent rainfall and thus help to revive these water systems. In any case, “variability will remain one of the most determining factors in the local scenario”, the experts said.
As autumn progresses, temperatures will gradually and gradually decrease, although the heat will gradually begin to subside, the cold air will have a hard time settling in fully.
With information from losprimeros.tv