Arthur Hayes, former CEO and co-founder of BitMEX, an exchange like Bitvavo, predicts a near-term massacre for cryptocurrencies. This is mainly due to an unstable stock market, Hayes reports in a blog article on April 11:
Beware of “The Q Trap” … Read on to find out when to start dumpster diving for #bitcoin and #ether†https://t.co/VhDodqhNd8 pic.twitter.com/bU1QfYykIX
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) Apr 11, 2022
Hayes notes that crypto prices like bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) have a very high correlation with stock markets like the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX). Crypto will therefore most likely be pulled along if the NDX price continues to fall.
According to Hayes, the Nasdaq 100 price will fall for three reasons. First, he expects the war in Ukraine to escalate further. This will lead to higher commodity prices and a decline in risky asset markets. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s tightening policy of raising interest rates in response to rising inflation will not work in the NDX’s favor. Finally, Hayes reports that the Nasdaq 100 will fall further, as the price has already crossed a key support level, the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level, fell.
Crypto prices are being dragged into possible crash
According to Hayes, this means that the Nasdaq 100 may crash in the coming months and crypto will then be pulled along. Hayes predicts that by the end of June, bitcoin will fall all the way to $30,000 and ether to $2,500. Other crypto may take even heavier blows.
“While some of these coins are already down 75% from their all-time highs, I don’t believe even they can escape the coming crypto carnage.”
Still, Hayes admits that these price predictions are based on gut feeling, not science. He also admits that he may be wrong. Should crypto decouple from these markets before a crash occurs, this scenario may not play out.
He warns against this scenario because many people in the crypto world are saying that the worst is already over. However, they ignore the current market conditions. Still, Hayes is already buying some altcoins because the low prices are attractive. Hayes is then also very bullish and estimates a price of as much as $1 million for bitcoin over the next few years.