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Covid-19: is the rise in contamination worrying?

Covid-19: is the rise in contamination worrying?

Changing curves. Since last week, the figures published by Public Health France show an increase in the circulation of Covid-19 over a large part of the territory.

After several weeks where optimism prevailed, the incidence rate is now on the rise everywhere in France, which confirms a rebound in the epidemic. As it stands, hospital indicators remain stable, and therefore under control, which does not encourage the government to overreact.

Differences depending on the location

The mark of 5,000 new daily cases of Covid-19 has again been crossed every day since the end of last week. The national incidence rate was, on Monday, 53.10 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants. That is an increase of 9.12 points in just seven days. The alert threshold (set at 50) is therefore exceeded, even if it remains far from the 247.94 of August 12, at the height of the fourth wave.

In detail, 42 departments (out of 101 French) were yesterday above the alert threshold, against 21 to 9 October. The most worrying cases concern Guyana and Martinique. As of October 22, the incidence rate is falling in the two overseas departments but remains well above the national average (217 positive cases out of 100,000 inhabitants for the first mentioned and 135 for the second). Another indicator recently returned to the red: the effective reproduction rate (R0).

Above 1, the virus spreads and circulates among the population. Today it is 1.05 against 2.11 in mid-July. In addition, the increases in contamination are stronger in the elderly. The 60-69 year old category has thus seen an increase of 30% (incidence rate at 37), 33% for 70-79 year olds (43) and 33% for 80-89 year olds.

Worrisome figures but which still remain far from some of our European neighbors. Despite concerns related to the drop in temperatures and the decrease, over time, in the effectiveness of vaccines, the government is therefore taking the situation with serenity, while urging the population not to relax their attention.

No panic, but caution

Unlike in the United Kingdom or even in Denmark, where the situation is more alarming, “the fact of not having lifted the measures, of having kept a kind of tension in the population on the risk of circulation and recovery at the start of the school year. “, Has allowed France not to undergo, for the moment, a fifth wave, according to Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva. For the epidemiologist, the restrictive measures currently applied in France “are proportionate to the epidemic situation”.

The government can therefore focus on immunization, which is the key to its strategy. In the line of sight: the booster dose for the most fragile. This week, new advertising spots will be launched to call for vigilance and encourage the French not to neglect barrier gestures (wearing a mask, ventilation, social distance).

Finally, the health pass should be extended beyond November 15 after the measure adopted in this regard by the National Assembly. Control measures, temporary, but which are likely to last over time …

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