Weather changes caused by climate change are helping to shift the location of terrorist activity, according to a new study
An exploratory study led by extremism expert Dr. Jared Dmello from the School of Social Sciences at the University of Adelaide revealed that some weather variables influenced terrorist activities in India.
“Fitness analyzes show that all climatological variables analyzed – temperature, precipitation and altitude – are related to changing patterns of terrorist activity,” says Dmello.
“Population densities in urban centers have increasingly increased, particularly in areas with favorable climates, and some of the more remote areas previously used by extremists have experienced such dynamic climates that they are no longer suitable for human habitation. “These groups are moving to emigrate to other places.
Not only was it the intensity of these climatological variables that caused terrorists to move to new locations, this shift in terrorist activity was also seasonal.
Temperature and violence
“This research shows that mitigating the harmful effects of climate change is not just an environmental issue, but is directly related to national security and defense,” says Dr. Dmello, who was recently awarded the Early Career Award from the Safety and Crime Prevention Section of the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences.
“In this study, we focused on the location of attacks, but the data also suggests that other forms of extremist behavior, such as the location of training, are also likely to change in response to climate change.”
The study, published in the Journal of Applied Security Research, focused on terrorist activity in India between 1998 and 2017, a period in which there were 9,096 terrorist incidents recorded by the Global Terrorism Database.
“Average temperatures in India reached record highs during our 20-year study period,” said Dr. Dmello.
“This time frame represents a range large enough to demonstrate climate change while having the latest reliable data covering both the dimensions of climate change and extremism for the country.”
This new and evolving understanding of how climate change affects patterns of terrorism is important knowledge for governments around the world, including Australia, to inform national security and defense strategies.
“Although terrorism and violent extremism manifest differently in Australia, where the number of attacks is much lower than in India, radicalization remains a major challenge that the Australian government has identified as a national priority,” says Dr. Dmello.
“To effectively curb radicalization, other critical issues such as homelessness, food insecurity, water and energy crises, and improving social justice are critical to ensuring a safer space for us all.”
Dr. Dmello, who joined the University of Adelaide in early 2024, also recently co-edited a book examining Arctic security from a multidisciplinary perspective and will continue his research on terrorism and extremism in the Australian context.
“In some of my recent projects, I have sought to understand how emerging issues are affecting radicalization here in Australia in order to find ways to work with government and law enforcement to prevent engagement with extremist ideologies,” it said.
“I am also interested in expanding my research in this area to examine the role of food and water inequalities in radicalization around the world.”
REFERENCE
Monsoon raiders and summer violence: Exploring the spatial relationship between climate change and terrorist activities in India