After bitcoin (BTC) briefly dipped below $18,000 last weekend, the price has been consolidating between $20,000 and $21,000 since the start of the week. That causes the anxiety to decrease slightly, but it still remains very high. The fear now is that bitcoin may be stuck in this area for a long time to come, and there could be even a deeper low in between.
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 11 – Extreme Fear
Current price: $20,935 pic.twitter.com/gAWDGhcY3p— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) June 24, 2022
Bitcoin rises 2% in 24 hours
The bitcoin price peaked at around USD 21,600 on Tuesday and dipped briefly below USD 20,000 on Wednesday evening. Bitcoin then rose slightly, but ran into too much resistance around USD 20,750 yesterday morning.
Bitcoin then fell, but found support around $20,300 by last night and was able to climb nicely from there. Early this morning, bitcoin peaked around $12,250 and then fell slightly again. The BTC price is rising to $20,900 on Binance and $19,850 on Bitvavo at the time of writing. This means that the BTC rate is up 2% again today.
Bitcoin rises with stocks, but recession is feared
Last night’s bitcoin price appreciation, as analyst Caleb Franzen points out, was accompanied by green-colored bonds and stock markets such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. It may suggest that inflation has peaked. However, the Federal Reserve has already warned that the chances of a “soft landing” are getting smaller and smaller. Fears of a recession are mounting and that could mean it will be a long time before investors regain the confidence to invest in riskier assets.
Quick thoughts: Bonds, stocks, & crypto are rallying today as economic data softens and inflation expectations decline.
We’re seeing yields fall dramatically since the Fed’s +0.75% hike last week.
The market is potentially suggesting that inflation has peaked.
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) June 23, 2022
When did the bitcoin bear market start?
The crypto community has been in disagreement for months whether bitcoin has already become a… bearmarket was or is still in a mid-cycle correction of a bull-market. In the meantime, more and more analysts are admitting that it is probably a bear market after all and the discussion has shifted somewhat. The question now seems to be: did the bear market start after the peak of November 2021 or actually already after the peak of April 2021? In any case, according to analysis firm Glassnode, the current bear market still falls into historical expectations:
the #Bitcoin drawdown from ATH has reached 73.3%, compared to previous bear market lows of between 75% and 84%.
The duration in this bear is:
– 435-days from the Apr-2021 ATH
– 227-days from the Nov-2021 ATHThis firmly places the current bear within historical bear norms. pic.twitter.com/YQPvAEmklU
— glassnode (@glassnode) June 23, 2022
Lack of bitcoin buyer volume
Although several indicators point to a bottom, this does not mean that bitcoin will make a real trend reversal anytime soon. As analyst Rekt Capital points out, buyer volume is very low compared to last week’s seller volume. Also, this volume is low compared to previous lows around the infamous 200-week moving average. As long as the buyer volume remains below average, the chance of a rapid recovery is also below average.
The end of the week is closing in and the #BTC buy-side follow-through on last week’s extreme sell volume is still very low compared to buyer volume at previous Bear Market Bottoms formed around the 200-week MA$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/8GrycKxIbI
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 23, 2022
Bitcoin miners are selling fast
Recently we have described more often that bitcoin miners are under considerable pressure due to the combination of a low price and a high hash rate† Analytics company IntoTheBlock reports that miners have sold as much as 18,251 BTC since June 14.
Miners are rushing to sell in order to cover expenses/loans.
With the Hash Rate maintaining at historically high levels and $BTC hovering around $20k, miners are struggling to break even.
Miner reserves have dropped by 18,251 $BTC since June 14th.https://t.co/bol3akiImy pic.twitter.com/YcIOolpFNS
— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) June 23, 2022
Crypto Insiders Members Vote On Bitcoin Mining
We recently asked our members of the Discord Premium group how they view bitcoin mining. An equal number of people indicate that it was either not enough or that they are waiting for the costs to come down. However, the vast majority admit that they do not know how to do this at all.
Bitcoin flows out of Coinbase
Major cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announces that it will apply strict regulations, probably also for Dutch users. More on that later on Crypto Insiders. It already seems to be leading to a significant outflow of BTC from Coinbase:
Time to welcome new #Bitcoin whale.
average $BTC outflows from @Coinbase hit a 9-year high. Average inflows are high as well.
There are lots of exchange in/outflows from whales lately, but actually, nothing changed on BTC reserve across all exchanges.https://t.co/Ptw2mg9YuR pic.twitter.com/s697lSvw27
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) June 23, 2022
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