Bitcoin (BTC) took another heavy blow in June, as it did in May. Meanwhile, trading volume is declining, showing that many investors remain cautious and may fear an even deeper bottom. Problems at companies like Three Arrows Capital and Celsius may add further selling pressure.
Despite this, there are investors who are already accumulating BTC heavily, so they don’t try to aim for the absolute bottom. However, the current macro conditions seem to preclude a quick recovery in the price and fears are still very high.
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 11 – Extreme Fear
Current price: $19,259 pic.twitter.com/k2MNnCODui— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) July 3, 2022
Bitcoin price drops by 37% in June
The bitcoin price was above $30,000 a month ago. A week ago, bitcoin briefly rose above USD 21,600, the highest price since the crash early last month. Last week, however, bitcoin fell again and on Thursday bitcoin lost traction at USD 20,000 and then fell below USD 19,000.
Bitcoin took a big bounce Friday night, but the price was rejected around $20,400 and then fell back towards $19,000. Yesterday, bitcoin was able to rise slightly, but the price did not go beyond $19,400. Early this morning, bitcoin made another sharp swing, but once again fell back to $19,000.
Pretty clear downtrend for #Bitcoin at the 4 o’clock: pic.twitter.com/p1zspo4FjW
— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) July 3, 2022
For the past few hours, bitcoin has hovered just above $19,000 and currently stands at $19,050 on Binance and $18,250 on Bitvavo. This brings the BTC price to the same price as 24 hours ago. However, that is down 11% from a week ago and 37% from a month ago.
Correlations with bitcoin
Throughout the year, in these market updates, we’ve been talking about the very high correlation between bitcoin and equity markets as well as the high negative correlation with the US dollar index (DXY). But how high is this correlation actually at the moment? Analyst Amir Jafarzadeh has listed them:
#BTC #Forex
📊 Correlation Matrix by @intotheblock📝 So far we have been concerned with the correlation between #BTC † #NASDAQnot knowing that #Bitcoin has the most + Correlation with the DAX (ALT description) index.
☑️ The highest inverse correlation is with the DXY. pic.twitter.com/HrGUP4fxPj— Amir Jafarzadeh (@AmirJafarzade77) July 2, 2022
Bitcoin miners under pressure
The low BTC price is putting bitcoin miners under considerable pressure and is now being labeled as a capitulation phase. At first it was mainly older miners who sold their reserves with a profit, now it is mainly newer miners who are forced to sell at a loss.
we are in a #Bitcoin mining capitulation period.
The growth in cumulative miner to exchange flows spiked recently at a time of low prices.In the chart we can see when miners:
– Sold at times of high market profits (🟩🟨🟧🟥)
– Sold at times of market losses/capitulate (🟪🟦) pic.twitter.com/5JcbBB63Uu— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) July 2, 2022
On-chain bitcoin bottom signals
Still some start on chain data to paint a more positive picture. For example, Ecoinometrics reports that small bitcoin addresses accumulate BTC considerably:
Those small #Bitcoin addresses are stacking sats like they are going out of style.
— ecoinometrics (@ecoinometrics) July 2, 2022
IntoTheBlock reports that small addresses, with less than 1 BTC, have bought a whopping 113,884 BTC since January:
Small holders continue to aggressively accumulate $BTC
Addresses holding <1 $BTC have been adding to their balance in 2022 at a remarkable pace.
Since January first, they added 113,884 BTC.
chart: https://t.co/kGlQpvSj57 pic.twitter.com/zh1tPvR19B
— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) July 1, 2022
On-chain College reports that the number of addresses with at least 1 BTC is now a all time high has achieved:
The Number of Addresses with a Balance of at Least 1 #Bitcoin just hit an all-time high at 874,668 pic.twitter.com/EWSokE2vLb
— OnChain College (@OnChainCollege) July 2, 2022
Crypto Insiders Premium for bitcoin analytics
Do you want to receive more in-depth bitcoin analyses? Then we would like to refer you to our Discord community for members† Ask analysts questions, chat with our fanatic community and receive daily technical and fundamental analysis of bitcoin, but also other crypto. Through Discord Premium we can share knowledge with each other 24/7 and we try to stay ahead of the market together with our members.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts’ own insights and experiences and are for educational purposes only.