Bitcoin (BTC) has had a difficult week, with fear and uncertainty running high. Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal point; if the price falls much deeper, the bears possibly prevail. Should bitcoin find a bottom here and recover, we may see confidence return soon.
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 32. Fear
Current price: $42,267 pic.twitter.com/60EqKWRapr— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) Apr 11, 2022
Bitcoin price dips even deeper
The bitcoin price dropped to $42,500 Friday night and held there on Saturday. Towards last night, bitcoin started to rise briefly and seemed to be starting a recovery. However, bitcoin was rejected around $43,400 and then plummeted again.
The pull back then pushed the price to an even deeper point, at $42,250. This morning, bitcoin even briefly dipped to $41,900, but was able to recover immediately to $42,250. The BTC price currently stands at $42,300 on KuCoin and $38,750 on Bitvavo. This means that the price is today 1% in the minus and 9% in the minus compared to a week ago.
Fed fear and DXY rate hit BTC
The hope is that bitcoin does not dip much deeper, because then the price could fall back into the consolidation range that bitcoin was in a month ago. However, there is a lot of fear about the Fed’s tightening policy and the correlation with stock markets is still high. There is also still a lack of new demand. We still don’t see so-called retail FOMO, despite the Bitcoin 2022 event.
Bitcoin also fell last week along with a rising dollar index (DXY) price. However, analysts think that DXY may have reached an all-time high and that could work out well for the BTC price.
the $DXY hero crucial level and is trending upwards here.
Higher timeframes also still trending upwards, but feeling a bit overextended.
A reversal, which is dropping back in the range, would kickstart bull season on #Bitcoin† pic.twitter.com/DXqlx9tgY3
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) Apr 10, 2022
Bitcoin between moving averages
It is possible that bitcoin is also entering a consolidation phase around its current price, as neither the bears nor the bulls currently have the upper hand. For now the big round moving averages the levels to keep an eye on.
Bitcoin is currently moving between 50 days simple moving averagearound $41,950, and the 50 days exponential moving average, around $42,950. We may be able to expand this range a bit using the 100-day SMA, around USD 41,550, and 100-day EMA, around USD 43,500. It wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if bitcoin lingers between these prices any longer. Should the price break out, we can look at the 200-day EMA around $44,700 and the 50-week SMA around $45,300.
BTC accumulation continues
Despite the large amount of fear, the accumulation continues and that may cause this conflict between the bears and bulls. Last weekend, no less than 91 BTC flowed out of crypto exchanges in a day:
Bitcoin price having a pull back while exchange net position was showing almost -91k BTC yday. Eventually the fuel will catch a light. Can we go lower? Yes short it’s possible for sure. Do I think BTC will be worth much more in the future? Yes. #BTC #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/O56QP8tKnZ
— Arm ₿ar (@crypt0blackbelt) Apr 10, 2022
This analyst also demonstrates using the so-called Binary Coin Days Destroyed (BCDD) indicator that long-term holders are accumulating BTC at the current price. In addition, Terra (LUNA) also bought more BTC from the weekend.
the BCDD metric’s 30-day moving average dips below 0.25, and distribution behavior when it breaks above the 0.75 threshold.Due to the recent #price fluctuation,the moving average has now fallen below 0.25.This suggests that longterm hodlers are accumulating #Bitcoin at current👇🏼
— Shayan.₿TC 🏳️🇺🇦 (@greatest_trader) Apr 11, 2022
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The floor #Bitcoin price of the accumulation phases was within 0-29 days, of the last 3 crosses
Last 3 times, resulted in a #BTC price drop to my Confluence Floor Model, currently at $27,681.
We had a cross 38 days ago. #Crypto
Captain, no splash… pic.twitter.com/MOV1pzm6al
— Plan©️ (@TheRealPlanC) Apr 11, 2022