The clubs now know their path to the grand final of Bilbao. Luck has determined the matchups for the 16 teams that have reached the round of 16 of the Europa League, and the OPTA Supercomputer has calculated the chances of success for each of the 16 teams.
Lazio started as a favorite, with a 16.8% chance of winning, after being a leader in the regular league phase. However, their position as a favorite has increased to 20% after being paired with Viktoria Plzen in the round of 16, and potentially facing Bodø/Glimt or Olympiakos in the next round.
The probability of winning the Europa League is a complex calculation, taking into account various factors such as team performance and betting market odds.
The other side of the balance
The Athletic Club has been treated poorly by luck, with their chances of winning decreasing by 3.3% to 13.2%. Before the draw, the supercomputer gave them almost the same probabilities of victory as Lazio, but the matches do not benefit the lions. They will face Roma in the round of 16, and if they advance, they will potentially face Fenerbahce or Rangers.
Manchester United is the other team that has been greatly affected by the draw, with their chances decreasing by 0.6%. The supercomputer gives them a 5.1% chance of winning the trophy, as they will face Real Sociedad in the round of 16.
How the probabilities are calculated
According to The Analyst, the OPTA supercomputer calculates the probability of each match result using betting market odds and the OPTA Power Ranking. These rankings are based on the historical and recent performance of the teams, providing a comprehensive picture of each team’s chances of success.
