Bakhmout outraged, Bakhmout broken, Bakhmout martyred. And soon Bakhmout abandoned? The latest statements by President Volodymyr Zelensky and his army have proven how difficult it is to provide an analysis of the conflict. On Sunday, the Ukrainian president hailed the “bravery” and “resilience of the soldiers fighting in the Donbass”, suggesting that Ukraine could withdraw from this symbolic city, faced with the risk of encirclement by the Russian army. and the paramilitary group Wagner.
A few hours later, change of tack. The Ukrainian general staff has finally announced that it wants to “strengthen” its positions, in this city that Russia has wanted to conquer since the summer of 2022, despite heavy human losses. “Not letting go of Bakhmout is a political choice that can have significant strategic consequences for Zelensky, believes the general Vincent Desportesprofessor of strategy at Sciences Po and author of the book Become a Leader. He can wear down his army and endanger the counter-offensive that he hopes to be able to lead in the spring. »
A Russian offensive to come, a Ukrainian response in the spring?
In this conflict, what was at stake went beyond simply taking Bakhmout, a “symbolic rather than strategic battle”. What could happen after? After a year of conflict, the two camps must respond to different time frames, depending on Cyrille Bret, researcher at the Jacques-Delors Institute. “On the Russian side, it has now been six months since the mobilization was announced, and the command was reconfigured. Six months is the time it takes to prepare a brand new military operation and to learn the lessons of the operations carried out over the past year. »
In kyiv, other deadlines are dictated by the calendar. “Normally, general elections are scheduled for the fall. On that date, the political leadership will have to show positive results, and thus attempt to recover as many occupied territories as possible in the Donbass and the south of the country,” notes the expert.
While the Ukrainian general staff claims to have repelled “130 enemy attacks” in several cities over the past 24 hours (Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmout, Avdiïvka), will the front remain stable at the end of the battle? of Bakhmout? According to experts, several factors must be taken into account. The end of winter, first, with the stalemate caused by the thaw. The meteorological situation should prevent major movements for several weeks, before the land hardens.
Lagging logistical support
On the strategic plan, then, one of the two camps will have to have the force necessary to pierce the opposing lines, and thus advance significantly. “Are the armies ready? It’s hard to know. A breakthrough must be able to be exploited with maneuvering mass. However, today, it is impossible to bring together a mass of armored vehicles without it being hit by fire. For the time being, the Ukrainians have not moved since their offensive in September, and the Russians are trying to break through, but are unable to do so, ”analyzes General Desportes.
Difficulties of the moment illustrated by Wagner, whose media chief, Evguéni Prigojine, once again complained of the lack of ammunition of his troops, busy advancing near Bakhmout. “On the Ukrainian side, there is a lack of shells, and this is a real problem, the stocks are running out and there is no production line to produce shells at the speed at which the Ukrainians consume them. The promised tanks are coming in dribs and drabs, and it will take months to train armored units for combat,” says General Desportes.
In an article dating from February 17, Cyrille Bret identified three rupture scenarios: a partition of Ukraine, in exchange for security guarantees; Russia’s use of an electromagnetic weapon coupled with a joint attack with Belarus; the uncontrolled escalation of the conflict. “These three rupture scenarios, none of which appears positive for Ukraine, do not have a high probability today. But the risks they entail are so considerable, especially for the last two, that it is essential to bear them in mind”, specifies the researcher. We have been warned.
