New Zealand faces a weeks-long wait to learn the makeup of its next government after Saturday’s general election failed to deliver a decisive victory to either major political bloc. Speaking to National Party supporters at the Viaduct Events Centre in Auckland just before midnight, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said the result was “too close to call” and paused formal coalition negotiations until special votes are counted.
With nearly 100% of regular election-night ballots counted on Saturday, the center-right National Party and its coalition partners held a narrow 67-seat majority, according to The Guardian. National secured 42 seats, the libertarian Act party won 13, and populist New Zealand First took 12. Luxon told party members that National remained the largest party in parliament and still had “a pathway to forming the next government” once final results are certified.
Because several electorate races were decided by thin margins and hundreds of thousands of special ballots remain uncounted, that three-seat advantage could shift before the Electoral Commission releases official results on November 27. Until a new administration is sworn in, New Zealand will remain under caretaker government rules, which restrict major policy initiatives and new spending. “For now, I want to tell New Zealanders that well-established caretaker conventions apply … The daily business of government will continue,” Luxon said.
Tight party vote and left bloc math
On the opposition side, Labour leader Chris Hipkins neither conceded defeat nor claimed victory as his left-leaning bloc finished the night three seats short of the right-wing coalition. In the initial Saturday night tally, National edged Labour by 0.02% in the nationwide party vote, giving Labour 35 seats alongside 16 for the Greens and five for Te Pāti Māori.
A subsequent preliminary count from Radio New Zealand, reported by Anadolu Agency, showed Labour moving slightly ahead in the raw party vote with 29.4% (710,330 votes and 36 seats) to National’s 29.2% (706,680 votes and 42 seats). Addressing supporters at the Cosmopolitan Club in Upper Hutt, Hipkins promised that Labour would get “straight to work” if the final count turns in its favor.
“New Zealand has spoken. It may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you’ve said,” Hipkins told the crowd, as reported by The Journal. “As things stand tonight, it is clear that we are not going to know the shape of our next government for a little while longer yet,” he added, noting that the incoming parliament will require parties to compromise: “Our next parliament is going to require all of us to compromise, to work together, and to find common ground.”
Opportunity enters parliament as potential kingmaker
Voter frustration over a sluggish economy and high inflation pushed support away from both major parties and toward smaller parties. The centrist newcomer Opportunity party won 5.9% of the party vote and seven seats, clearing the 5% threshold required to enter parliament. Since New Zealand adopted its mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system in 1996, Opportunity is the first new party not formed by defecting lawmakers to cross that threshold.
Even with Opportunity’s seven seats included, the opposition bloc remained below the majority mark on election night. However, if special votes reduce the right bloc’s seat count, Opportunity could become the coalition kingmaker that pre-election opinion polls had projected. Party leader Qiulae Wong told supporters in Auckland she was thrilled with the breakthrough. “It’s looking very promising for us,” Wong said. “Let’s just see how the rest of the votes fall.”
Smaller parties on the right also held their ground as ACT deputy leader Nicole McKee outlined her party’s priorities for the new term, saying, “What we’re wanting to do is make sure that we have a country that is united, where need is put above race.”
Record overhang costs senior National ministers
Under New Zealand’s MMP system, voters cast one ballot for a local electorate lawmaker and one for a political party, which determines each party’s overall share of seats in the standard 120-seat chamber. When a party wins more local electorate races than its national party vote percentage entitles it to, it keeps the extra lawmakers as overhang seats, expanding the total size of parliament.
Both National and Te Pāti Māori won five more electorate seats than their party vote shares allowed, creating an overhang that is projected to expand the next parliament to a record 130 seats, where 65 or 66 seats are required to govern. While those electorate victories kept the right bloc ahead overall, they came with a heavy cost for National’s leadership bench. Because all 42 of National’s seats were filled by local electorate winners, the party received no list seats, leaving list-reliant senior ministers Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith, and Gerry Brownlee, along with Hutt South MP Chris Bishop, outside parliament on preliminary numbers.
The final makeup of parliament now rests on special votes, which include ballots cast overseas and outside a voter’s home electorate. Luxon said roughly 300,000 special votes remain to be counted, while Xinhua put the total at 700,000 out of nearly 3.8 million provisionally enrolled voters. In the 2023 election, 600,000 special votes accounted for 21% of all ballots and shifted three seats to the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, a pattern that leaves both blocs waiting until the Electoral Commission publishes the official tally on November 27.