Page/12 in Peru
From Lima
The crisis in Peru worsens after the parliamentary majority refused to advance the elections to October of this year in the early hours of Saturday. This decision throws gasoline on the fire of the social protests that began in December demanding the resignation of President Dina Boluarte and elections this year. In parallel, the militarization of the country, the authoritarianism of the government and the repression against popular mobilizations are escalating. And the tone of an increasingly fascist discourse by the government, the parliamentary right and the hegemonic media that criminalizes the protests and the left, applauds the repression that shoots against protesters, justifies the militarization of the country and uses –of the Hand in hand with the Prosecutor’s Office–unsubstantiated accusations of terrorism. The protests have already left nearly 60 dead, including 46 killed by police and army fire, a repression that mainly targets Andean populations. But the protests resist, they do not give up.
After the decision of the discredited Congress –9 percent popular approval– to block elections this year, there was a massive mobilization through the streets of Lima this Saturday. The daily protests continue in a good part of the country and the blockades of roads. Repression remains the only government response. For ten days, popular anti-government mobilizations have been daily in the capital. Many residents who have arrived in Lima from different regions are a central part of the protests that are always repressed with tear gas thrown indiscriminately, pellet shots, beatings and arbitrary arrests. In the Andean populations the repression has been with rifle shots.
Congress rejected the early elections for October of this year with 65 votes against and 45 in favor. There were two abstentions. 87 votes, two-thirds of the chamber, were required to approve it in the first instance. Then it would have to be ratified in a second vote. The rectification of the vote that rejected the elections this year has been requested, so it will be voted again this Monday. A change that would allow it to be approved seems highly unlikely. In December, under popular pressure, 93 legislators approved advancing the 2026 elections to April 2024, a decision that is pending ratification in a second vote. The massive mobilizations demanding elections this year led to a debate on a second early election.
They opposed the advancement of the elections to 2023 by the extreme right — except for the Fujimori Popular Force (FP) — and most of the right-wing and center-right legislators. They want elections in 2024 because they are looking for time to introduce reforms that favor them and take over the electoral bodies. In the midst of strong social protests, Fujimorism changed its position and supported the advance. The elections this year were opposed by the benches of Peru Libre (PL) that led Pedro Castillo to the presidency and its splits as the Magisterial Bloc (BM). These leftist groups conditioned their support to the new early elections, to the approval of a referendum for a Constituent Assembly, which they knew had no chance of prospering.
It is not the first time that PL has coincided with the extreme right. In statements to Página / 12 last August, its general secretary, Vladimir Cerrón, declared that he preferred to ally with the extreme right rather than with the progressive left, which he considers his “main enemy.” This vote has been a new expression of his coincidences with the extreme right. The progressive left of Cambio Democrático –Juntos por el Perú (CD-JP)– supported that the elections be held this year.
“Congress has missed an opportunity to lift the lid on the pressure cooker to let some of the pent-up heat out. This is going to increase the anger and anger of the people”, the historian, anthropologist and political analyst Carlos Monge told this newspaper. On the coincidence of the ultra-right and a sector of the left in rejecting elections this year, he pointed out: “They share a conservative anti-rights agenda, against the advancement of gender perspectives, women’s rights, sexual diversity. They want to stay a few more months to advance that common agenda and to continue lobbying, representing the interests of those who financed campaigns and to enjoy a few more months of a good salary. They are meanly negotiating a few more months in Congress at the expense of those killed in the streets. By giving them more time for the elections, PL and WB are clearing the way for the right to capture the electoral bodies.”
Monge opined that the Fujimori movement changed its position and supported the elections this year to seek to position itself in line with what the majority demands and for an electoral calculation. “FP is the right-wing party with the largest social base, many of its bases must be pressing for elections this year. In their decision there may also be a subaltern political calculation, they think they may be the only viable option for the right in a short-term election. But what Fujimorismo can gain with its support for elections this year is limited, because at the same time it supports the government and the repression”.
Eduardo Ballón, anthropologist and researcher at the Center for Development Studies and Promotion (Desco) pointed out that the majority of Congress accepted in the first vote to advance the elections to 2024 “out of fear and their relative defeat in the face of the force and violence of the mobilization of the people, but they want to stay as long as possible, until 2026 if that’s possible.”
The advance of the elections for 2023 practically fell and they are not confirmed for 2024. The advance of the elections, both analysts agree, will depend on the strength that the popular mobilizations maintain.
“If in the next four or five days there is no course that leads us to advance the elections to 2023, I envision a scenario with much more violence and repression than we have seen so far. And a blockage of the few possibilities for dialogue that exist at the moment. There is an increasingly visceral polarization,” said Ballón. In his opinion, the government is unsustainable. “Boluarte has no chance of sustaining himself until 2026, and I see it as difficult for him to sustain himself until 2024. His only chance of sustaining himself is by further deepening his alliance with the extreme right and the military apparatus. There is clearly an empowerment of the armed and police forces in the government”.
Along the same lines, Monge warned that the government’s course “is leading to the total militarization of the country.” “This government can only prevail with bullets, even cannon shots because the tanks are taking part of the territory. Boluarte is only sustainable in the form of an open civil-military dictatorship”.