Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini is preparing to launch prediction market contracts, a strategic expansion into a growing sector that allows users to bet on future events, according to a Bloomberg report.
The company, founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, aims to offer contracts on outcomes such as election results, economic movements, and sporting events. Gemini is engaging in discussions with U.S. federal regulators to ensure compliance.
Plans indicate that product testing will commence in late 2025, with a potential full launch by 2026. This move positions Gemini to challenge platforms like Polymarket, which currently dominates the prediction market with a 70% share.
Analysts project the prediction market sector could exceed $10 billion in annual trading volume by 2026. This growth is attracting interest from both retail investors and hedge funds, driven by increased institutional adoption and clearer regulatory frameworks.
The Winklevoss brothers have publicly advocated for prediction markets, viewing them as a form of “collective wisdom” that can forecast real market trends. Their strategy for Gemini includes diversifying beyond its existing portfolio of over 100 cryptocurrencies.
Gemini plans to implement enhanced identity verification (KYC) measures for users. Access will be restricted to residents of permitted jurisdictions, and the platform may integrate stablecoins like USDC to minimize volatility in wagers.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) supervises these derivative instruments. Gemini, which is based in New York and regulated by the state’s Department of Financial Services, has emphasized its commitment to responsible innovation.
A company spokesperson commented that Gemini is “excited to bring the precision of prediction markets to the crypto world,” though they did not confirm specific details of the rollout. This expansion is expected to intensify competition within the burgeoning prediction market.