The 2026 U.S. Open is scheduled to begin Thursday at Shinnecock Hills, but the toughest opponent for the field is already blowing off the coast of New York. Forecasters predict sustained prevailing southwest breezes between 12 and 24 mph throughout the opening round. Those sustained winds will be punctuated by punishing 40 mph gusts, fundamentally altering how the course plays.
Organizers are actively working to prevent a repeat of the infamous 2004 and 2018 tournaments, where Shinnecock’s putting surfaces baked out and bordered on unplayable under similar conditions. To counter the severe weather, the USGA is implementing an aggressive moisture control strategy. USGA Chief Championships Officer John Bodenhamer confirmed the organization will lower target green speeds to roughly 10.5 on the Stimpmeter. This marks the slowest U.S. Open greens since 1995.
The intervention extends into the middle of the competition. The USGA plans to syringe the greens—applying light water to the putting surfaces—between the morning and afternoon waves on both Thursday and Friday. Officials hope the mid-day watering will maintain baseline playability as the coastal winds continuously strip moisture from the grass.
These chaotic conditions present an immediate hurdle for a highly accomplished field. Scottie Scheffler enters the tournament chasing a career Grand Slam after capturing four of the last six majors. Rory McIlroy is also navigating the wind in pursuit of his first U.S. Open victory since 2011. Defending champion J.J. Spaun faces a uniquely grueling test to retain his title, with players universally acknowledging that the “biggest player will be Mother Nature” across all four rounds.