Bitcoin is poised to close October 2025 with its first monthly loss since 2018, shattering a long-standing bullish trend that earned the month the nickname “Uptober” among cryptocurrency enthusiasts.
The digital asset is set to record a 2.7% decline for the month, a significant deviation from its historical performance. This follows an earlier loss of over 6% experienced in the preceding 30 days.
This reversal stands in stark contrast to previous years. Exactly one year ago, in October 2024, Bitcoin ended the month with a more than 10% positive performance. In 2023, the monthly gain reached an impressive 28.5%, according to data from Coinglass.
Historically, October has been a strong month for Bitcoin. Since 2013, the cryptocurrency has posted an average gain of 20.38% during the month, with a median return of 14.7%, Coinglass data shows. Only two of the thirteen Octobers leading up to 2024 closed with losses.
The consistent positive trend since 2019, even through the 2022 bear market, cemented “Uptober” as a market expectation. October’s strong performance has often catalyzed a positive year-end, with the final three months typically being the best period for Bitcoin. The average quarterly return for Bitcoin between October and December since 2013 has been 79.26%.
However, 2025 is breaking this pattern due to a confluence of macroeconomic factors. These include decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve on monetary policy, a government shutdown, and trade tensions between President Donald Trump and China. This combination has injected uncertainty into the market, diminishing investor appetite for risk.
Earlier in October, Bitcoin briefly reached a new all-time high above $126,000. This peak was quickly followed by an unprecedented wave of liquidations totaling over $19 billion within a 24-hour period.
Investors have remained cautious since, with Bitcoin struggling to maintain a price above $110,000. Its current price stands around $108,700, reflecting a modest daily gain of 0.6% but remaining nearly 13% below its early-month high, according to CoinGecko.
Despite the recent correction and ongoing volatility, many analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Firms like CryptoQuant and others continue to forecast a bullish year-end, with some predicting Bitcoin could reach $200,000.
