The banking crisis seems to be convincing a specific group of mini-whales that Bitcoin might be a very good idea after all. On the blockchain we can see exactly how certain groups of investors behave. Currently, it is the mini-whales, who own more than 10 Bitcoin, that are growing the fastest of all.
What is going on?
On a macro level, the banking crisis seems to be changing the narrative. Whereas the market previously predicted a very difficult 2023, that is now slowly starting to change. The banking crisis has led many investors to believe that the Federal Reserve will soon step on the brakes and stop raising interest rates.
If they abandon their raising campaign at a time when the US dollar is still experiencing an inflation rate of around 6.0 percent, that will not be good for the fiat currency. For many investors, this is apparently a sign that they need to look for alternatives.
That alternative seems to be mainly found in Bitcoin and gold in recent days, both of which have gone through the roof since the start of the banking crisis. Ultimately, both Bitcoin and gold are known for their scarcity, which is exactly what is interesting if the traditional banking sector has to print money again to keep itself afloat.
Interest meeting
Another interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve (US central bank) is scheduled for today and it could be crucial for Bitcoin. For now, the market expects a rate increase from 0.25 percent to 4.75 – 5.00 percent with a probability of 87.8 percent. There is still a very small chance of 12.2 percent that the Federal Reserve will already pause and apply the brakes today.
The interest rate decision in itself will therefore not be much of a spectacle. However, investors are more curious about Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference following the interest rate decision. We will receive the interest rate decision at 7:00 PM Dutch time, followed by the press conference from Jerome Powell at 7:30 PM.
What is particularly striking is that traders cannot agree with each other on what wisdom is at the moment. 52 percent of investors say opposite CNBC that the Federal Reserve should raise rates, while 48 percent say a pause is better right now.