Bitcoin’s recent price dip has fueled a strong conviction among participants in predictive markets that the cryptocurrency is more likely to fall to $80,000 before reaching new highs, diverging from historical bullish trends.
Online prediction platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad are seeing a significant shift in wagers towards a bearish outcome for the world’s largest digital asset. On Polymarket, a contract with over $117,000 in volume assigns a 62% probability, which increased to 66% on Thursday, that Bitcoin will touch $80,000 before it reaches $150,000.
This contract is set to close on January 1, 2027. It will resolve to the lower price if Bitcoin drops to $80,000 or below before hitting $150,000 by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Conversely, it resolves to the higher price if Bitcoin reaches $150,000 or more before falling to the lower threshold within the same period. If neither price point is met, the market will resolve 50-50.
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Bettors on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi see a fall towards $80K as more likely.
Over 60% of contracts bet on this option before reaching $115K.
The cryptocurrency, which touched $100K,… pic.twitter.com/zvTZRrAvNT— Diario฿itcoin (@DiarioBitcoin) November 17, 2023
A similar contract on Myriad, questioning whether Bitcoin will “Go up to $115K or down to $85K?”, shows a narrow bullish bias at 56.1% for an increase versus 43.9% for a fall. Bearish bets on this platform briefly peaked at 45% during the recent price correction.
On Kalshi, the market “How low will Bitcoin go this year?” indicates growing pessimism, with the probability of a drop below $90,000 exceeding 40%. The chance of a decline below $80,000 before the end of 2025 stands at approximately 20%.
This collective activity across the three platforms highlights uncertainty regarding the current correction. There is concern that Bitcoin may not regain its upward momentum before the end of the year.
This surge in pessimistic sentiment follows Bitcoin’s breach of the psychological $100,000 threshold for the first time in six months. The cryptocurrency registered a local low of $99,607 on Tuesday. This recent dip occurred nearly a month after Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,000 in early October.
Historically, October has been Bitcoin’s strongest month, often signaling the start of a year-end rally. However, 2025 has defied this pattern.
On October 6, Bitcoin’s price plummeted by approximately $10,000 in a single day. This sharp decline followed threats of 100% tariffs on China by then-President Donald Trump, triggering an unprecedented $19 billion in liquidations within 24 hours.
Beyond fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war, other factors are adding to selling pressure. These include a partial federal government shutdown, now the longest in the country’s history, and the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy stance.
Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin’s trajectory leading into 2026. Galaxy Digital recently adjusted its 2025 target for Bitcoin down to $120,000. In contrast, JPMorgan raised its 6-12 month target to $170,000.
As Bitcoin struggles to hold above $103,000 this Friday, nearly 20% below its recent peak, risk-takers are repositioning their bets. The question for many is no longer if there will be volatility, but rather its ultimate direction.