The first day of the new German government era was marked by significant developments, with no room for pause or joy. Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), announced his intention to form a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and initiate negotiations as early as next week. A grand coalition between the Union and the Social Democrats is seen as the only viable option to form a government, without considering a hypothetical pact with the Alternative for Germany (AFD) that would break the “sanitary cordon.” Merz met with SPD leader Lars Klingbeil and Chancellor Olaf Scholz to discuss the potential coalition.
Coalition Talks and Key Issues
After securing 28.6% of the votes, Merz believes he has a clear mandate to form a government and is focused on preparing a sensible transition phase. He emphasized that Germany needs a government capable of acting with a parliamentary majority that supports it. The conversations with the SPD will revolve around three key issues: foreign policy, migration, and economy and industry. However, Merz also expressed his desire to change the electoral law, which he believes is “unilaterally directed against the union.” This law change is a crucial point for the CDU, as 15 of their candidates and three from the Christian Social Union (CSU) failed to enter the Bundestag due to the new law.
Challenges and Expectations
The Union has become the most voted force in federal elections, but it still requires a partner to form a coalition. While a government with the SPD is mathematically possible, social democrats anticipate complex negotiations. Some conservative politicians, such as Thorsten Frei, have called on the SPD to assume their governmental commitment, emphasizing that the party has always taken great responsibility for the country. The next few days will demonstrate how quickly a strong government can be formed.
SPD’s Position and Future
For the SPD, the result represents not only a historical minimum but also the first time a social democratic chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has been dismissed after only one mandate. Scholz has announced his intention to remain in office until a new chancellor is chosen but does not wish to participate in negotiations on the formation of a new government. The SPD’s Lars Klingbeil is likely to become the new strong man of the social democrats and has announced his candidacy for the presidency of the Bundestag parliamentary group.
Avoiding a Coalition at Any Price
Despite their poor results, the SPD does not want to enter a coalition at any price. The party will observe Merz’s behavior in the negotiations and decide based on whether it really works. The Prime Minister of Lower Saxony, Stephan Weil, also did not assure the success of the negotiations, stating that it would have to be a coalition that could be said with good conscience: “yes, this could work.”
Alternative for Germany (AFD) and Left Party
The possibility of negotiating with the AFD is seen as distant and impossible. The leader of the AFD, Alice Weidel, claimed her party’s place in the new Parliament and demanded that they not be denied the position of vice president of the Bundestag. The AFD, with 152 seats, “should no longer be ignored,” Weidel added. The leaders of the AFD, Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, want to continue leading the fraction of the Bundestag as a duo after the elections. The Left Party does not plan to participate in the next government but is open to cooperating with other parties on laws that require a two-thirds majority.
Merz’s Expectations and European Leadership
Merz is expected to quickly form a stable government and assume leadership with clear policies in Europe. As someone who began his political career in Brussels and Strasbourg as a member of the European Parliament, Merz is familiar with community reality and has visited the community capital several times in recent months. His interlocutors had the impression that he was familiar with European legislative proposals, and his leadership role could be crucial in filling the vacant position in European leadership, especially with the US president, Donald Trump, undermining the foundations of the transatlantic alliance.
