JPMorgan Chase analysts have raised their Bitcoin price target to $170,000 within the next year, standing out with an optimistic forecast amidst a turbulent cryptocurrency market correction.
The Wall Street bank’s projection, detailed in a recent report, forecasts the digital asset could reach this milestone in the next six to twelve months. It comes as Bitcoin has seen a nearly 20% decline from its recent historical highs.
Bitcoin recently dipped below $100,000, marking its lowest point since June, before recovering to approximately $103,000 USD at the time of the report’s closure. The cryptocurrency remains nearly 19% below its peak of $126,000 USD reached last month.
The bullish outlook, spearheaded by JPMorgan Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, is primarily rooted in a volatility-adjusted comparison between Bitcoin and gold.
Analysts suggest that the deleveraging phase in perpetual futures, key instruments for market monitoring, appears to have concluded. The open interest ratio in these contracts relative to Bitcoin’s market capitalization has returned to normal historical levels in a matter of weeks.
“In general, we believe that perpetual futures are the most important instruments to consider at the current juncture, and the message from the recent stabilization is that deleveraging in perpetual futures has likely been left behind,” the analysts stated.
JPMorgan’s “mechanical exercise” compares Bitcoin’s current market capitalization of about $2.1 trillion USD to the $6.2 trillion USD privately invested in gold, through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and physical holdings.
For Bitcoin to match gold’s private sector investment, it would require a 67% increase. This comparison indicates a “discount” of approximately $68,000 USD relative to Bitcoin’s current fair value, implying “significant upside.”
Furthermore, a recent increase in gold’s volatility has made Bitcoin more appealing to investors when adjusting for risk. The Bitcoin-gold volatility ratio has dropped below 2.0, meaning BTC consumes only 1.8 times more risk capital than the precious metal.
This elevated forecast contrasts with other market assessments. Earlier in the week, Galaxy Digital reduced its Bitcoin projection for the end of 2025 from $185,000 USD to $120,000 USD, citing the ongoing market correction.
JPMorgan itself has refined its prior estimates. In August, the bank targeted $126,000 USD by year-end, a level Bitcoin briefly surpassed on October 6. Last month, a similar analysis hinted at a potential $165,000 USD, concluding Bitcoin was significantly undervalued against gold.
The broader cryptocurrency market has endured a turbulent period marked by high liquidations. This includes a record $19 billion USD in crypto liquidations on October 10 and additional smaller liquidations on November 3.
These events, coupled with a partial U.S. federal government shutdown and a restrictive stance from the Federal Reserve, have dampened investor confidence and reduced appetite for risk.
Despite persistent volatility, JPMorgan’s report suggests the market is showing signs of stabilization that could pave the way for a recovery, reinforcing its bullish long-term view.