Crypto market analysts, led by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, are increasingly predicting Bitcoin could surge to $1 million, fueled by expectations that Japan’s new fiscal stimulus will trigger widespread monetary easing and inject global liquidity into scarce assets.
Hayes, an influential voice in crypto macrofinance, has interpreted Tokyo’s recent economic measures as a clear signal for extensive “money printing” and a potential return to aggressive quantitative easing (QE) by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). He asserts that such expansionary policies will funnel excess liquidity into Bitcoin.
The Japanese government’s stimulus package, which includes subsidies for energy and food and incentives for small businesses, aims to alleviate inflation impacting households. However, financial markets view these measures as a precursor to further public spending and monetary relaxation.
Following the announcement, the Japanese yen fell to a one-week low, according to reports, as investors weighed the possibility of the BOJ halting its gradual tightening policy and reverting to QE. The BOJ is scheduled to assess its interest rate strategy in an upcoming meeting.
Hayes’s consistent thesis posits a strong correlation between global liquidity and Bitcoin’s bull cycles. He maintains that “every time a government prints money to plug holes in the system, Bitcoin absorbs that excess liquidity,” positioning the digital asset as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency devaluation.
This macro context is reinforced by observations from financial portals like Milk Road Macro, which note that over 80% of the world’s central banks have already resumed QE policies to counter a global economic slowdown. Japan, historically a leader in aggressive stimulus, could re-emerge as a key player in this trend.
Hayes argues that this environment, marked by cheap money and persistent inflation, erodes confidence in central banks, prompting investors to seek out assets with limited supply and resistance to censorship, a description that fits Bitcoin.
Market activity appears to reflect these expectations. Bitcoin recently rebounded from a four-month low, and large investors, often called “whales,” have begun opening significant long positions.
Data compiled by Lookonchain and reported by Cointelegraph indicates that three major investors have returned to the decentralized platform Hyperliquid to establish leveraged positions worth millions of dollars. One wallet, identified as “0x3fce,” increased its exposure to $49.7 million, while another, “0x89AB,” opened a $14 million position with six times leverage.
These moves suggest that significant market players anticipate a Bitcoin price rally, driven by an expanding global liquidity environment and the potential for Japan to reactivate expansive monetary policies. Hayes’s analysis aligns with a broader market perception that a return to monetary stimulus in major economies will be a critical factor for Bitcoin’s next major bull cycle.