As the rugby world descends upon the Emerald Isle, there’s a palpable sense of excitement in the air – and it’s not just because of the impending St. Patrick’s Day celebrations on March 17th. If Ireland can secure a win over France today in the fourth round of the Six Nations, the festivities might just reach a fever pitch. Just two days prior, the Irish team would have taken to the field in Italy, where they’d be favorites to claim the title and make history as the first team to win the Six Nations three times in a row outright, without sharing the honor. England still has mathematical chances, but the 37-22 drubbing they suffered at the hands of the Irish in the first round means they’re now relying on others to slip up.
France, still reeling from their missed opportunity at the 2023 World Cup, has a direct shot at the title – but only if they can pull off a win against Ireland, and preferably with a bonus point, given that while Italy has shown significant improvement in recent years, they’re unlikely to pose a significant threat to an Irish team determined to hold onto their status as the world’s top team between World Cups. England’s nail-biting 26-25 victory over France, which had seemed all but certain to go the other way, has only strengthened Ireland’s position. The English team’s hopes now hinge on avoiding a slip-up against the rising Italian team today and then dispatching Wales in the final round.
While Ireland may be the favorites, especially with home-field advantage, the prognosis is far from clear-cut. It’s surprising, for instance, that despite boasting a formidable backline featuring the likes of Antoine Dupont and the ever-reliable Thomas Ramos, French coach Fabien Galthie often favors his forwards. On the Irish side, interim coach Simon Easterby – standing in for Andy Farrell, who’s focused on the British and Irish Lions’ upcoming tour of Australia – welcomes back captain Caelan Doris but will be without the likes of Tadhg Furlong and Mack Hansen due to injury, the latter being a significant loss in the forwards. The only thing separating this matchup from being a de facto final is the slender margin of England’s win over France, courtesy of Elliot Daly’s try and Finn Smith’s decisive kick – but in all likelihood, this is as close to a championship decider as it gets.
