The regulatory initial public offering filing by SpaceX sent billions of dollars into space-focused exchange-traded funds in May. The filing pushed investors toward publicly listed proxies. Benefiting directly from this capital rotation, aerospace engineering firm Intuitive Machines saw its stock value surge by nearly 73% over the month. The sustained rally was supported by a new military contract and a record quarterly earnings report.
On May 12, the U.S. Space Force selected Intuitive Machines for its Andromeda program. The company is one of 14 vendors awarded an indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract by the Space Systems Command. The vendors will develop space domain awareness capabilities for tracking objects in geosynchronous orbit. Two days later, the company reported Q1 revenue of $186.7 million, nearly tripling its year-over-year figures.
Management reported a first positive adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 million. They also detailed a $1.1 billion backlog, heavily tied to the recent Lanteris acquisition.
The upward trajectory faced a disruption on May 26. NASA formally excluded Intuitive Machines from its Lunar Terrain Vehicle program, opting instead to award the contracts to competitors Astrolab and Lunar Outpost. Shares dropped 9% on the news but fully rebounded on May 27. Roth Capital raised its price target to $75, citing the company’s underlying lunar infrastructure fundamentals. Analysts Austin Moeller of Canaccord and Mike Crawford of B. Riley updated their models, raising targets to $41 and $45 respectively.
How the SpaceX IPO Skews the Valuation of Alternate Space Proxies
The flood of capital into Intuitive Machines highlights a mechanical shift in how retail and institutional funds treat pure-play aerospace stocks. Because SpaceX remains privately held during its IPO transition period, investors are parking capital in secondary space infrastructure companies to capture adjacent sector momentum.
While Intuitive Machines holds a legitimate $1.1 billion backlog, its 73% monthly gain outpaces its actual Q1 revenue growth. ETF rebalancing and sector-wide sentiment are driving the current $75 price targets alongside the Andromeda military contract.