A depression over the southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal is likely to strengthen into a cyclonic storm on Monday, Nov. 16, and a severe cyclonic storm by Tuesday, Nov. 17, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday, Nov. 15. Once the system reaches cyclonic storm intensity, it will be named Akwan, a name contributed by Iran under the regional tropical cyclone naming roster.
In National Bulletin No. 1, issued at 10:30 a.m. IST on Sunday, the IMD reported that Saturday’s well-marked low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal moved north-northwestwards and concentrated into a depression at 5:30 a.m. IST on Nov. 15. At that hour, the system was centered near latitude 9.0 degrees North and longitude 86.9 degrees East with an estimated central pressure of about 1008 hPa, according to the IMD’s Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre outlook and ANI.
The depression lay about 700 km west-southwest of Port Blair, 860 km east-southeast of Chennai in Tamil Nadu, 1,040 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh, and 1,160 km south-southeast of Gopalpur in Odisha, The Hindu reported. While The Hindu and Deccan Chronicle described the system’s movement as northwestward, the IMD’s technical bulletin and ANI recorded its path as north-northwestwards. In the bulletin, the IMD stated that the depression is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm over central parts of the south and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal on “16th November and into a Severe Cyclonic Storm over westcentral Bay of Bengal on 17th November, 2026.”
Tamil Nadu rainfall alerts and weather tomorrow
The IMD forecast rain across the north coastal districts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and the Karaikal area. Moderate rain at isolated places is also expected over the Western Ghat and southern districts of Tamil Nadu starting Monday, Nov. 16. During the 24 hours ending at 8:30 a.m. IST on Sunday, Nov. 15, rainfall was recorded across several Tamil Nadu districts, including Chengalpattu, Chennai, Kancheepuram, and Kanyakumari.
Earlier in the week, IMD Amaravati warned of squally winds of 40 to 50 kmph gusting up to 60 kmph over the Andaman Sea on Nov. 14 and 15 and over the southeast Bay of Bengal through Nov. 16, The Week reported. BigHaat reported that fishermen were advised not to venture into the southwest Bay of Bengal from Nov. 15 to 18 and the central Bay of Bengal from Nov. 16 to 19.
As of Sunday morning, the IMD had issued no rainfall alerts for Andhra Pradesh, though The Hindu noted that a forecast for the state was expected later in the day. Officials had also not announced a confirmed landfall point as of Sunday morning. According to The Week and BigHaat, early weather models differed on whether the system will track closer to the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast between Nov. 17 and 19 or recurve over the sea toward West Bengal or Bangladesh.
Third Bay of Bengal storm system in a month
The disturbance began as an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the southeast Bay of Bengal on Nov. 12, organized into a low-pressure area on Nov. 13, and became a well-marked low-pressure area on Saturday, Nov. 14, according to Datasurfr and the IMD. If it reaches cyclonic storm strength on Monday as forecast, Akwan (also spelled Akvan in some reports) will be the third cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal within a month. It follows Cyclone Arnab, which made landfall near Kakinada on Oct. 28, and Cyclone Murasu, which crossed the coast near Ongole six days later on Nov. 3, according to Dainik Jagran and BigHaat.
Meteorologist Ganesh Kumar Das told Dainik Jagran that while three cyclones forming in the Bay of Bengal during the October-to-December post-monsoon season is not unusual, the short interval between the 2026 storms stands out. Das pointed to 2023, when Cyclones Hamoon, Midhili, and Michuang formed with longer gaps between them, and compared the six-day gap between Cyclone Arnab and Cyclone Murasu to Cyclones Helen and Lehar, which struck the Andhra Pradesh coast six days apart 13 years earlier. The IMD is scheduled to release its next forecast update regarding Andhra Pradesh later on Sunday, Nov. 15, ahead of the depression’s expected intensification on Monday and Tuesday.