Germany is set to vote this Sunday in what’s being considered one of the most decisive elections in its history. To grasp the significance of this moment, it’s essential to understand the five key factors at play.
Understanding the Context
The forthcoming elections were precipitated by the breakdown of the coalition between the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the liberals (FDP) back in November. This led to a call for early elections, which are now taking place seven months earlier than initially anticipated. Foreign Minister Olaf Scholz’s decision to challenge Minister of Finance Christian Lindner, a liberal, over his “wishes” for the government, was a pivotal moment. In December, Scholz had to face a vote of confidence in the Bundestag, which Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier used as a basis to call for early elections, citing the loss of parliamentary confidence in the Executive.
Early Elections and Their Impact
The rupture of the coalition government led to a dramatic turn of events. It not only resulted in early elections but also marked a significant shift in the political landscape of Germany. The decision by the Foreign Minister to undergo a vote of confidence was a critical point, as it prompted the Federal President to intervene and pave the way for these decisive elections.
Friedrich Merz, the Front-Runner
Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union and the CDU/CSU candidate, is currently favored to become the next chancellor. His party is leading in the surveys with 30% of the votes, followed by the ultra-right Alternative for Germany (AFD) with 20%, and the SPD social democrats with 15%. This positioning sets the stage for what could be a significant political realignment in Germany.
Immigration Takes Center Stage
The ultra-right party has successfully made immigration a central theme of the campaign, particularly in the wake of attacks in Germany committed by asylum seekers. For 70% of Germans, immigration is their top concern, prompting both conservative and social democratic parties to adopt harder stances on the issue. This shift reflects a broader trend in European politics, where immigration has become a polarizing and decisive factor in elections.
Possibility of a Grand Coalition
According to the latest polls, forming a federal coalition between conservatives and greens is mathematically unlikely in the future Bundestag. This suggests that Merz may have to form an alliance with his social democratic rivals to create a grand coalition (known as a “Groko” in German). This formula is not new; Angela Merkel governed with such a coalition for 12 out of her 16 years as Chancellor, indicating that political pragmatism may prevail over ideological differences.
A “Sanitary Cord” Against the Ultra-Right
All German democratic parties, particularly the CDU/CSU, have publicly stated their intention not to collaborate with the Alternative for Germany (AFD) due to its flirtation with Nazism and xenophobic rhetoric. This stance has been in place since the AFD first entered Parliament in the 2017 elections. Despite this, the AFD is expected to increase its support and potentially become the second-largest force in the new Parliament, highlighting the deep divisions within German society and the challenges the next government will face in addressing them.
