The German elections have yielded some surprising results, with the CDU/CSU’s victory being closer than predicted, at 28.5%. It’s puzzling that the party wasn’t able to capitalize on the discontent with the outgoing government. One possible reason is that the candidate, Merz, has strong support among party loyalists but hasn’t been able to connect with the center, which was a key factor in Merkel’s success. Moreover, his initiatives for a tougher stance on illegal migration and the subsequent protests from some church and civil society representatives may not have helped his cause in the final stretch of the campaign.
Coalition Negotiations Ahead
Merz is urging for swift coalition negotiations. The question is, will he be able to attract the social democrats? Despite the heated debates between the candidates, there have been instances of cooperation in recent weeks, and this coalition is the most popular among voters, according to surveys. Foreign Minister Scholz won’t be directly involved in the negotiations, but those who will be part of the future government will take part. The CDU’s less-than-expected result means they won’t have the upper hand in these talks. Both parties share many common positions, and while the CDU/CSU focuses on economic reforms, the SPD, with its strong union ties, can act as a counterbalance to protect the welfare state, a priority for its base.
A Complex Situation for the SPD
The SPD’s base may be hesitant to govern with the conservatives again, given the experiences under Merkel. However, the party has significant negotiating power, mainly because there are no alternative coalition options, aside from the already dismissed possibility of a coalition with the AFD. The SPD wants a coalition agreement as soon as possible, and its negotiators will strive for an agreement that has broad support within the party. This could pave the way for a more inclusive and sustainable coalition.
The recent elections saw the two major parties barely scraping together 45% of the vote, with one in three Germans voting for a populist party. This significant political disaffection can be attributed to the growing heterogeneity and diversity of German society, as well as a broader spectrum of parties. However, the high electoral participation of 83% didn’t lead to the expected reinforcement of the center; instead, the extremes have increased their votes, indicating a possible polarization of the electorate.
Priorities for the Future Government
Merz has spoken of the need to avoid an AFD victory in 2029, framing the current situation as the last chance to do so. To recover voters from the extreme right, the new government’s priorities should include achieving a stable coalition agreement that addresses Germany’s most pressing issues. These include improving the economy’s competitiveness, reinstating a sense of public security, and strengthening EU unity in the face of international challenges. Only through tangible results and decisive action can the coalition hope to reduce support for the AFD and work towards a more unified and stable political landscape.
