What will crypto prices do in the future? Everyone wants to know, which is why price predictions are also very popular. The large asset manager VanEck shared recently such a price forecast for Ethereum (ETH). It did this based on a lot of complicated calculations and the assumption that Ethereum will hold a large share of the smart contract market.
Ethereum to $11,000 in 2030?
In a recently published report, researcher Matthew Sigel and analyst Patrick Bush explain how they arrived at their price expectations for ETH. “We expect Ethereum network revenue to grow from $2.6 billion to $51 billion by 2030.” And based on a number of calculations, the two authors arrive at an ethereum price of $11,800. At the time of writing, the ethereum euro price is 1,750 on crypto exchange Bitvavo.
The $11,800 price is based, among other things, on the assumption that Ethereum will represent 70% of the smart contract market by 2030. The authors explain exactly how they arrived at the price forecast. Hold on tight, because it’s pretty complicated:
“We project Ethereum revenue, subtract a global tax rate and the validator revenue, and arrive at a cash flow figure. We then apply multiple estimates by applying an estimated long-term cash flow yield of 7% minus the long-term crypto growth rate of 4%. We then arrive at the complete diluted valuation (“FDV”) in 2030, divide the total by the expected number of tokens in circulation and then reduce the result by 12% to 4/20/2023.”
VanEck shares several ethereum price forecasts
The $11,800 price expectation is the researchers’ baseline scenario. In addition, they also share one bear and bull scenario. If things don’t go according to the base scenario, and the revenue on the Ethereum network doesn’t increase that fast, the price would end up at $343, according to the researchers.
If things go better than the base case scenario, an ethereum price of $51,000 would be possible. Of course, ultimately no one knows what will happen in the future. The researchers warn:
“There may be risks or other factors not considered in the above (price) scenarios that could hinder Ethereum’s performance. These are only the results of a simulation based on our research and are for illustrative purposes only.”
