The final two places in the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals are on the line this Saturday. England faces Norway, while defending champion Argentina takes on Switzerland. The winners will advance to play each other on July 15 in Atlanta.
Erling Haaland has been the driving force behind Norway’s historic run. He is tied with Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé for the Golden Boot with seven goals. The striker averages a goal every 14 touches at the tournament.
His late brace in the Round of 16 dumped five-time champions Brazil out. That secured Norway’s first-ever appearance in a World Cup quarterfinal.
But the Opta supercomputer heavily favors England to advance. It gives the Three Lions a 50.4% probability of winning the match within 90 minutes based on 25,000 simulations. When factoring in extra time and penalties, England’s overall chance of progression rises to 62.3%. Norway is given a 25.1% chance of securing a win in normal time.
This marks the first-ever meeting between England and Norway at a FIFA World Cup. Historically, England holds the upper hand with eight wins to Norway’s two across 12 total matchups.
Norway has failed to score against England in their last four encounters. The most recent was a 1-0 English victory in a September 2014 friendly. England captain Harry Kane publicly praised his opponent ahead of the match, expressing awe at Haaland’s scoring run.