Haiti and the Dominican Republic are among the countries with a low level of population aging, because even in 2030, older people will not reach 10% and 15% of its population, respectively.
Last year, the proportion of older people in some countries and territories, mainly in the Caribbean, was above 20% and will exceed 30% in the next decade, for example, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Puerto Rico and Cuba. These countries, in addition to experiencing low fertility, have gone through intense emigration processes throughout the demographic transition.
The information is provided by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal), in its report “Panorama of Aging and demographic trends in Latin America”, in which he states that in South America, Uruguay It is the country that presents advanced aging, since older people exceed 20% of the population in 2022.
He adds that in 2030, this country will be joined Chili, and both will be the oldest in the subregion that year. They indicate that in the coming decades, other South American countries will also follow the observed trend of a sharp increase in the number and percentage of older people, including Argentina, Brazil and Colombia.
Although Argentina experienced an early demographic transition process in the region, it has not experienced such an accelerated process in the current decade.
In Central America, the country most advanced in the process of population aging is Costa Rica, where the group of older people will increase from 16% to 20% in this decade. On the other hand, the countries furthest behind in this process are Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua.
According to the report, the percentage of older people who are in each territory at a given time depends on the trends in demographic variablesfor example, the mortality and fertility levels at the beginning of the transition, the rate at which they are decreasing, and their current levels. Furthermore, it depends on the strength of migration and the percentage of women of reproductive age in the population.
Looking at the future, it is expected that by 2060 the proportion of people aged 60 and over in Latin America and the Caribbean will exceed that of Asia and Oceania and will be closer to the values for North America and Europe.
In 2100 the proportion of older people in the region will reach 38.2%, very close to the proportion estimated for Europe in the same year.
In addition to the increase in the proportion of older people in the last 70 years, there has also been an increase in absolute terms at the regional level. Currently, the number of people aged 60 and over is 88.6 million.
In the coming decades, the size of the elderly population in the region will be very similar to that of Europe: it is expected that in 2060 the population aged 60 and over will be 220 million people in Latin America and the Caribbean and will be close to the 248 million in Europe.
