The Senate’s legislative schedule has reached a severe bottleneck following a failed Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act reauthorization, pushing critical digital asset market-structure legislation down the priority list. Following the congestion, Galaxy Digital has formally lowered its probability for the CLARITY Act passing the Senate this year from 75% to 60%.
Galaxy Digital Head of Research Alex Thorn confirmed the downgrade, citing the legislative logjam rather than a loss of political support. Unresolved lawmaker ethics rules and illicit finance provisions attached to the bill also remain key roadblocks delaying momentum on the floor.
Institutional Bets Track the Legislative Calendar
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act successfully passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with a bipartisan 15-to-9 vote. The bill was then formally placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1, making it eligible for a floor vote once leadership finds an opening. The stakes for the industry are highly quantified; Galaxy Digital recently executed a $10 million OTC swap with crypto hedge fund Arca tied directly to the bill’s passage.
Senator Cynthia Lummis had previously circled July 4 as an informal target date to advance the framework. That timeline is now viewed as highly pressured by analysts monitoring the failed FISA vote and subsequent calendar congestion. Lummis warned that failing to pass the legislation this year could delay any market structure resolution until 2030.
Why the Stablecoin Rewards Dispute Threatens the $300 Billion Market
Beyond jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and the CFTC, the legislation’s most heavily contested provision centers on stablecoin rewards. Lawmakers remain deadlocked over whether to strictly ban rewards generated “solely for holding” a stablecoin while permitting narrowly defined activity-based yields.
This single provision directly impacts the $300 billion stablecoin sector and its ability to compete with traditional bank deposits. A strict ban on passive holding rewards would force digital asset issuers to restructure their yield products entirely, altering the competitive baseline for institutional capital allocation.