An investigation has revealed that a substantial portion of wagers favoring a U.S. political candidate on the unregulated prediction market Polymarket originated from China and the Middle East, raising significant questions about potential market manipulation and its influence on public perception.
The findings, compiled by WAS Intel, a private group of blockchain forensic experts, indicate that ten distinct cryptocurrency wallets control approximately 40% of the market’s bets for New York State Assembly member Zohran Mamdani. These concentrated holdings suggest a coordinated effort rather than organic public sentiment.
WAS Intel also identified that 87% of the funds backing these wagers were sourced through offshore cryptocurrency exchanges, including Binance, Bybit, and OKX. The report points to the account “dubdubdub2” as a prime example, having spent USD $1.2 million on Polymarket bets since September, with its funds traced back to Binance.
Polymarket, which formally prohibits participation from U.S. residents, can be accessed through virtual private networks (VPNs). The platform typically sees an average bet size between USD $10 and USD $50.
Despite the substantial financial backing from these concentrated accounts, Polymarket’s reported odds placed Mamdani at a 91% chance of winning against Andrew Cuomo at the time of the investigation. Polymarket representatives declined to comment on the findings.
Investigators detected patterns consistent with automated bot activity, observing some accounts making multiple bets for Mamdani within a single minute. Furthermore, similar funding sources appeared repeatedly across nearly half of the top 100 betting wallets.
A spokesperson for WAS Intel stated that “individual wallets distribute funds to several other wallets that then hold large positions — evidence that the same person is spreading funds among different accounts.” This strategy can artificially inflate perceived demand and sway public opinion.
The main funding channel, Binance, is not authorized to serve customers in the United States, although it operates a separate U.S. affiliate, Binance US. The report did not allege illegality but highlighted the unusual concentration and potential coordination of funds.
The activity on Polymarket may indirectly impact regulated financial markets. Arbitrage opportunities between Polymarket and regulated platforms like Kalshi, which is based in the U.S. and overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), can lead to an alignment of odds. This means unregulated activity could influence prices on a regulated exchange.
Concerns about the visibility of these odds have grown, especially as they appear in public spaces like Times Square and on transit station displays. Observers worry this exposure could influence voters and passersby.
Prominent figures have voiced their apprehension. Investor Bill Ackman publicly shared his concerns about the levels reflected on Polymarket. Mark Moran, a former banker and current congressional candidate in Virginia, was among the first to flag a “suspicious Polymarket pattern.”
Separately, technology informant Yehonatan Dodeles published a Medium post, citing a leaked TikTok document. The document allegedly suggests that TikTok’s algorithm might be “amplifying” content favorable to Mamdani while “suppressing” videos of his rival, Andrew Cuomo. This claim was referenced by Reuters in its reporting.
Experts are urging greater transparency and independent audits for both prediction platforms and social media companies. While public blockchain records allow for transaction tracing, the rapid pace of operations and the use of multiple exchanges and wallets complicate clear attribution and potential regulatory intervention.