Assessing the Role of External Support in the Syrian Conflict
The Syrian civil war has been a complex and multifaceted conflict, with various factions and external actors playing significant roles in shaping its outcome. One crucial aspect of this conflict is the impact of external support on the rebel groups, particularly the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its affiliates.
The Influence of Turkish Support on Rebel Groups
It is arguable that without the logistical and technical support of Türkiye, HTS and its affiliates would not have been able to achieve significant gains against the Assad regime. The Turkish government’s backing has provided these groups with the necessary resources and expertise to challenge the Syrian government’s authority.
Evaluating the Ideology of Rebel Groups
While HTS and its affiliates have been associated with radical ideologies, their stance on the Syrian government has undergone significant changes. The group’s leader, Abu Mohammed Al Jolani, has shifted his position, adopting a more pragmatic approach. This transformation is evident in his name change to Ahmed Sharaa, which suggests a desire to transition into mainstream politics and shed his image as a jihadist leader.
Strategic Shifts and the Pursuit of Democracy
Ahmed Sharaa’s change in strategy is likely driven by the realization that Syria’s diverse ethnic landscape requires a more inclusive and democratic system. The failure of the ISIS caliphate model in Syria and Iraq has demonstrated the need for a more nuanced approach. A multi-party system, representing the needs and aspirations of all Syrians, is more suitable for the country’s future.
Implications for Regional Stability and Israel’s Security
The emergence of a jihadist government in Syria could potentially pose a greater threat to Israel’s security than the Assad regime. While the Assad government has maintained a relatively stable relationship with Israel, the rise of Sunni extremist groups under HTS leadership could lead to increased tensions. A moderate civilian government, elected through a peaceful transition, is essential for mitigating this threat and ensuring regional stability.